Intersecting shadows over Syria: Support, intervention, and regional competition

Following the Israeli Chief of General Staff's statement that they would continue to weaken Syria, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan issued the message, "We will not allow Syria to be divided." Simultaneously with these statements, information surfaced in the press that the current Syrian administration had requested official support from Turkey to increase its defense capacity. It was reported that Turkey is conducting efforts in this framework for training, consultancy, and technical support. The background of this development highlights Syria's internal governance problems and weakened state mechanism.

STATE EXISTS IN SYRIA, BUT STATECRAFT DOES NOT

Although Syria is a country with a deep-rooted state tradition, it is currently being managed by Ahmed Shara and his team, who lack state experience and were on terrorist lists until recently. Shara, who received indirect support from the US and Turkey in the post-Bashar al-Assad period, has attempted to consolidate his own authority over time. However, the multifaceted threats he has faced during this process have forced him to fight on different fronts. The request for aid from Turkey can be interpreted as a clear indicator of this fragility, as the army largely disintegrated and the security structure weakened with the collapse of the Assad regime.

Since taking office, Shara has not been able to be the president of all Syrians, and the management process has not proceeded transparently. The independent actions of groups outside the official army have increased ethnic and sectarian tensions in the social structure. The crisis, which began in March with jihadist attacks on Alawites, moved to a new dimension with Israel's support for the Druze and the subsequent clashes in As-Suwayda. Although a ceasefire has been declared, the tension continues.

In this environment, the support Turkey provides to Shara stands out not only as a political choice but also as part of its regional security strategy. While defending Syria's territorial integrity, Turkey is also taking steps to prevent threats that may come from across the border. In this context, Turkey's role is both supportive and balancing in nature.

THE BALANCE KNOTTED IN THE HEART OF THE MIDDLE EAST

The changing political dynamics in Syria affect not only this country but the geopolitical structure of the entire Middle East. The conflicts of interest and the multi-actor structure in the country pose a serious obstacle to lasting stability in the short term. Achieving stability depends on the willingness of opposition actors to share power, their ability to integrate other groups into the system, and their capacity to manage conflicts.

Another determining factor is the will and ability of regional and global actors regarding mediation and reconciliation. At this point, the US, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some Gulf countries are on the front that does not want Syria to be divided. Countries neighboring Syria, especially Israel and Turkey, play an important role in shaping the dynamics in the region. Israel's destruction in Gaza, the weakening of Hezbollah, and the collapse of the Assad regime have provided Israel with a strategic advantage in regional power balances.

ISRAEL'S SYRIA STRATEGY

In order to turn this power balance in its favor, Israel is trying to increase its effectiveness in Southern Syria and is deepening its cooperation with the Druze and Kurds. Turkey's support for Shara causes Israel to be uncomfortable with Turkey's influence in Syria. In particular, the Israeli support given to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—which Turkey defines as an extension of the PKK, though they deny this connection—is evaluated as a serious security problem for Turkey. The Kurds' tendency to form alliances with both internal and external powers creates a new line of tension in Turkey-Israel relations.

In the chaotic environment following Assad, Israel's move beyond the Golan Heights to support certain minority groups stands out as a strategy that fuels sectarian divisions. This strategy further weakens Syria's political unity. On the other hand, the Abraham Accords signed by Israel with some countries in the Arab world also reflect this country's effort to institutionalize its regional power.

THE FINE CALCULATIONS OF DIPLOMACY

All these developments bring to mind the question, "Will Turkey and Israel come face to face directly in the Syrian field?" While this is within the realm of possibility, it is assessed that it could be limited by current diplomatic efforts. Indeed, it is known that the US Ambassador to Ankara and Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack are making active efforts to prevent possible crises that could arise in the Turkey-Israel-Syria triangle. Although the US provides a certain level of support to Shara, it would surprise no one if the leader who takes office afterward is a figure close to Washington.

Another point that should be emphasized here is this: Israel is not the sole determining actor in the fragmentation of Syria and the reshaping of the regional structure. The indirect or direct support of the US and some of its allied Arab countries is necessary. However, these actors are also cautious about the possibility of instability.

IN WHOSE HANDS IS SYRIA'S FUTURE?

For years, Turkey has faced both political and security-related problems in Syria. In this framework, it is trying to establish a balance by supporting the Shara administration on one hand, while continuing its strategy of consolidating its own national security beyond its borders on the other.

As a result, the current structure in Syria stands on a fragile balance due to weak management capacity, multi-polar actors, and foreign interventions. The direction in which this fragility will be shaped depends directly not only on the success of the Shara administration but also on the attitudes of Turkey, Israel, the US, and the Arab world.