Iran's new loneliness: How far does the alliance with China go?

Although relations between China and Iran, which are geographically distant but strategically converging, date back to the Pahlavi era in political terms, the real progress in the economic dimension has taken place in the last decade. Today, China is one of Iran's largest trading partners.

However, the fact that the Iranian economy is facing sanctions, corruption, social protests, structural development problems, and uncertainty about the future makes it difficult for China to develop economic relations and limits cooperation. Despite this, Iran remains both a cost-effective oil supplier for China and holds a strategic position within the scope of the Belt and Road Initiative.

China's Cautious Foreign Policy Approach

The moves by the US to reshape the world energy map and its pressure policies toward Iran are of close concern not only to Iran but also to China. However, this picture leads China to act more cautiously.

Indeed, Chinese foreign policy has been shaped for many years in line with the approach of "hide your strength, bide your time." It is observed that instead of forming alliances, it pursues a pragmatic policy based on mutual benefit aimed at its economic interests. This is important for understanding the limits of China–Iran relations.

25-Year Agreement: Alliance or Limited Partnership?

Although the 25-year comprehensive strategic partnership agreement signed between Iran and China in 2021 is characterized as a strategic alliance, it does not contain political or defense obligations. For this reason, in accordance with China's foreign policy understanding, it is not expected to take a step directly aimed at defending Iran in a possible US–Iran military conflict. 

Iran's Geopolitical Value for China

However, it is not possible for China to ignore Iran. Iran is a geostrategic country for China. 

First of all, Iran is an important energy supplier for China. Beyond that, the country's geographical location and its control of the Strait of Hormuz are important for China's increasingly growing economic relations with Gulf countries. In addition, China wants to secure the route of the energy it supplies from Gulf countries.

Furthermore, Iran, which has shown resilience despite many years of US sanctions and political pressure, is a country that cannot be easily written off by China. However, this situation carries risks for China: a US attack on Iran, Iran's potential shift to the West as a result of a possible regime change, and the region falling under US control. 

China's Likely Stance in a Possible US Attack

In this context, a possible US attack on Iran or impositions on Iran will create economic and geopolitical costs for China. However, China is not expected to provide direct military support. In line with the foreign policy understanding defined by China's "Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence," it is likely that it will adopt a stance within the framework of respect for Iran's territorial integrity and sovereignty and show a reaction to intervention. Indeed, China clearly expressed its opposition to foreign interventions during the protests as well. 

Another reason why the possibility of military support is low is the policy of regional balance. Because while China supplies cheap oil from Iran on the one hand, it is developing its economic and technological relations with Gulf countries and Israel on the other. This multi-faceted policy also makes it difficult for it to take sides.

Does Conflict Benefit China?

There are assessments that the US being dragged into a military conflict with Iran could provide an indirect advantage to China. Accordingly, with the US's attention shifting to the Middle East, China would move more comfortably in the Pacific and an opportunity would arise to consolidate its influence in Asia. However, while these assessments offer short-term opportunities for China, instability in the region and volatility in energy prices could bring costs to the Chinese economy. Therefore, it can be said that China would not want a war either.

Growing Disappointment in Iran

Iran maintains the expectation that China will support it in a possible crisis situation. However, Iran is debating why China, with which it cooperates in the economic field and to which it exports the majority of its oil, does not provide open support despite being a major power. Indeed, past examples clearly show China's interest-based stance. China's stance close to the UAE in the dispute between Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb has been an important indicator that has created distrust in Iran.

Conclusion

While China continues to maintain its relations with Iran, it does not appear to have the intention of turning this relationship into an alliance. For China, the main priority is the security of energy flow, the preservation of regional stability, and avoiding direct conflict with the US.

Nevertheless, China will do its best, even if indirectly, to prevent a situation that would negatively affect the region through a possible intervention in Iran. It is likely that it will show its reaction by supporting Iran at the diplomatic level and criticizing the intervention.

This situation may deepen Iran's perception of strategic loneliness and lead it to pursue a more cautious policy in its foreign policy.