Iran's 'Gulf' message

Gulf countries, which manage some of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds and can influence financial markets through their global investment activities, have suffered due to Iran's attacks. The stability of the Gulf region, which holds a significant portion of the world's largest energy reserves and serves as a critical route for oil and natural gas transportation, is directly linked to the global economy. In this context, it is a known fact that Gulf countries have engaged in diplomatic initiatives to prevent or limit military operations by the US and Israel against Iran.

However, the impact of the war launched against Iran has not been limited to Iranian territory or military targets in the region. The effects of the conflict have spread over a wide area, extending to sea lanes, energy infrastructure, and strategic ports that are critical to the global economy. This situation has once again demonstrated the direct impact of security vulnerabilities in the Gulf region on the international economy.

Following the attacks by Israel and the US on Iran, Iran has carried out strikes against US bases in Gulf countries, primarily in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Bahrain. The Iranian administration has also stated that the target of these attacks was not the Gulf countries themselves, but the US military bases located within those countries.

Iran's Message of Deterrence

In this context, the fact that the attacks were not limited to military targets but also affected energy facilities, seawater desalination plants, airports, tourist areas, ports, and oil-natural gas facilities has led to the emergence of a different message. This picture shows that Iran is sending a message of deterrence that can be read as "if I am not safe, you are not safe either." It also aimed to show that the economic and security costs of the war would not be limited to Iran alone.

In this regard, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a serious risk to global energy markets, the attacks on military bases and strategic ports in Gulf countries have dealt a second blow to global trade. Furthermore, Iran's attacks have not only damaged US bases in the region but have also made the bases belonging to the UK and France more visible.

In the face of these attacks, Gulf countries have emphasized their rights to self-defense under international law, highlighting their determination to protect their sovereignty and security.

Although Iran's attacks have created serious discomfort and security concerns in Gulf countries, these nations are monitoring developments carefully and cautiously. However, the Gulf countries have overlooked one thing: they believed that the US military bases in their countries would provide them with a security umbrella against Iran. Yet, current developments have shown that these bases have become a risk factor that could drag the Gulf countries directly into the conflict.

Indeed, this situation creates a serious vulnerability for Gulf economies, which are heavily dependent on energy exports and maritime trade. For this reason, while Gulf countries are trying to maintain their security relations with the US and Israel, they are also pursuing a careful balance policy to avoid being dragged into a direct conflict with Iran.

The consequences of Iran's attacks, such as the closure of airspace and disruptions in shipping, have damaged the image of Gulf countries as centers of finance and stability.

Nevertheless, it appears that expectations from Israel and the US for Gulf countries to join the war, driven by public pressure and security concerns, still persist. However, the Gulf countries will need to calculate correctly whether joining this war will provide them with any long-term gains or whether they will simply be serving the interests of Israel and the US.

The entry of Gulf countries into a direct war with Iran could create a significant strategic opportunity for Israel. In such a scenario, the war would not only be referred to as an Israel-US-Iran conflict but also as a regional war between Iran and the Gulf countries.

Yet, in recent years, Gulf countries have been developing strategies to diversify their economies beyond dependence on oil revenues through investments in tourism, finance, and technology. In this direction, it is clear that Gulf countries, which are trying to attract numerous international investors to the region, would not want to be involved in a large-scale regional war. Furthermore, Gulf countries are not keeping their economic relations limited to the US but are also developing them with countries that are influential in the global economy, such as China and India. Therefore, they are aware that an unstable region will lose its appeal for international investment.

The Gulf's Balance Policy and Risks

At this point, the most concerning development for Gulf countries may be the effects that regional conflicts could have on their own internal political and social balances.

On the other hand, it is observed that Israel, which has formed alliances with regional countries to isolate Iran, is attempting to take full control of the region. Therefore, the developments taking place can be evaluated not only as military operations conducted against Iran but also as part of a process of reshaping the regional security architecture.

This process may have also shown the Gulf countries an important truth: that the US's security priority in the region is not solely the protection of Gulf countries, but also the maintenance of its military presence in the region and the security of Israel.

The fact that Gulf countries, having realized Israel's strategy of turning the balance of power in the Middle East to its own advantage, are making concessions through agreements made for the sake of short-term gains is an indicator of the price they are paying today.

All these developments also bring with them a significant question mark regarding the regional security architecture. In a situation where US security commitments are weakening or beginning to be questioned, could the Gulf countries, considering that they will continue to live in the same region as Iran due to geographical reality, turn toward seeking a new balance and reconciliation with Iran in the long term? The answer to this question is becoming increasingly important for the future of the region.