Israel's Turkey Plan: Reality or Perception?

On September 9, Israel carried out an attack targeting a Hamas delegation in Doha, citing Qatar's support for Hamas as the reason. Following the attack, an official condemnation also came from Turkey. After this development, questions of "is Turkey next" were brought to the agenda. In the foreign press, there were comments that Hamas has an office in Turkey, that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan supports the organization, and that Israel could carry out an operation targeting Hamas members in Turkey. It is claimed that Turkey could face such a risk even though it is a NATO member. 

Relations between Turkey and Israel, once strong regional partners, deteriorated in the mid-2000s, and tensions escalated further with the Gaza war. To better understand these claims, it is necessary to look at the historical course of Turkey-Israel relations.

Historical Background: Turkey-Israel Relations

Ties between Turkey and Israel began to fray starting in the 2000s. In particular, the Gaza blockade, the Mavi Marmara raid, and the Gaza war led to serious tensions between the two countries. Despite this, relations were never completely severed; even during periods of diplomatic tension, economic relations were seen to continue. Although Turkey was the first Muslim state to recognize Israel, it often took the opposing side on the Palestinian issue. These past fractures have laid the groundwork for today's attack allegations. So, why is Israel specifically targeting Turkey?

What Strategic Calculations Are Behind the Possibility of an Attack?

Claims that Israel is planning an attack on Turkey are actually not new. These rumors had previously come to the agenda during the period when Israel was carrying out attacks on Iran, alongside the support Turkey provided to Tehran. Recent statements regarding Jerusalem have also reignited these debates. 

Israel's Minister of Diaspora Affairs and Combating Antisemitism, Amichai Chikli, characterizes President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as a leader who acts in line with the Muslim Brotherhood, desires the resurgence of the Ottoman Empire, and advocates that Jerusalem should be a part of this empire. In this context, Chikli defines Turkey, Qatar, and Syria as a "new axis of evil." These discourses can be evaluated as a sign of a deepening cold war between Turkey and Israel.

On the other hand, similar emphases are made in the Israeli press, highlighting Turkey's activity in Syria, claims that it has neo-Ottoman goals, and debates conducted over the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant. Furthermore, Turkey's claim to be a regional power is presented by Israel as an element that threatens strategic balances.

A Real Attack or Political Rhetoric?

All these discourses bring the possibility of a potential attack to the agenda even more. However, the truly critical question is this: Can Israel really carry out a direct military attack on Turkey?

While discussing Israel's attack capacity, the NATO factor stands out as a decisive element. While Turkey is a full member of NATO, Israel only holds the status of a "partner country." The fact that NATO's decision-making processes are based on unanimity and that Hamas is recognized as a terrorist organization leads to questioning Turkey's security guarantees in Israel. In this context, some circles argue that it would be appropriate for Turkey to review its relationship with Hamas and hand over the organization's leading figures for its own security.

Therefore, it is debated that Israel's possible steps toward Turkey might not develop in the form of a direct military intervention, but rather as assassinations or pinpoint operations targeting Hamas members allegedly present in Turkey. However, such an attempt could drag relations between the two countries into a deep crisis and seriously shake regional balances.

For this reason, the frequently asked question of "is Turkey next" should be evaluated more within the scope of political rhetoric and perception management.

Conclusion

Relations between Turkey and Israel follow a fluctuating course today, just as they did in the past. Although recent developments do not seem to drag the two countries into a direct conflict, it is highly unlikely that a comprehensive war will break out between Turkey, which is a NATO member and has close relations with the US, and Israel, the US's most important ally in the Middle East. On the other hand, the possibility of the two states coming face-to-face indirectly on Syrian soil seems more realistic. In this context, psychological pressure, intelligence activities, or assassination attempts are among the scenarios that could come to the agenda.

On the other hand, Turkey frequently keeping the rhetoric of "Israel will attack us" on the agenda could weaken the mediation role the country has undertaken in the region and damage its international image. A realistic foreign policy necessitates both observing the expectations of the domestic public and avoiding statements that could damage Turkey's reputation in the international arena.