Iran is experiencing one of the most severe economic crises since the founding of the Islamic Republic. The country is facingexhausting protests, political repression, and a picture of an uncertain future. Deepening economic problems, the devaluation of the Rial against the dollar, andhigh inflation, rising cost ofliving, and pressures have increased social unrest.
One of the mostconcrete indicators of this process is the Tehran GrandBazaar. The protests began with the reactions of tradespeople to taxes, high inflation, and the economic stagnation in the market. These protests, which spread to other cities in a short period of time, have become reaching universitiesdemonstrates the potential for the ongoing crisisto spread acrossthe entire country.This picture, similar to the waves of protests that have shaken Iran in recent years, raises concerns that the country is on the brink of a wider scalesocial crisis.
The Depth of the Crisis in Daily Life
The effects of the economic crisis have become evident in the daily lives of society. The constant rise in basic food prices, chas led to a decrease in the consumption of milk, dairy products, and meat.In particular, access to meat for large segments of society has become quite difficult.In addition to this, the rapid erosion of publicsectorwages and pensions has further exacerbatedthe scale of the economic crisis.explicitlydemonstrates this. According to official data,while inflation is at 40 percent,the 20 percent increaseapplied to salaries has further fueled the backlash.
Accompanying this economic picture is a long-termdroughtand power outages are also making the crisis more fragile. This situation indicates that the dissatisfaction in society will not be short-term.Anger on the Streets
Economic pressures,
politicaldeadlocks, and the gap betweensociety and theadministrationThe escalation of tension in the region has made the current situation in Iran even more complex. The rhetoric of opposition movements abroadis also among the factors influencing this process.In the protests led by shopkeepers,slogans such as “Death to the dictator”and “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, my lifeis for Iran” were chanted.for sloganshave come to the forefront. As the protests spread across thecountry, however, “This year is a year of blood, Seyyid Aliwillfall”, “May Reza Shah’s soul rest in peace”, “This is the final battle, the Pahlavi will return”, “Longlive the king” and “No to the headscarf, no to oppression, we are all together, equality and freedom” as well as regimechange callsthat includeslogans have also been heard.These developments, social division along with economic and political pwhile showing that theerosion is deepening, it has also increased question marks regarding whether Iran can overcome these crises.
Internal Dynamics and External Timing Debate
The recent protests are,to a large extent,more thaninterventions, they have emerged as a result of demands accumulating within society.Iran has been facing unresolved and increasingly deepeningfinancial problems for years. Livelihoodhardships,social restrictions, a widespread perception of corruption, and drought are among the root causes of social unrest. Although Iran'scurrent situationAlthough the situation is sometimessought to be exploited byexternal forces, explaining the protests solely through foreigninterventionsmeans ignoring the concreterealities experiencedby Iranian society.
This A noteworthy point within thisframework is that the protests took place simultaneously with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu'svisitto the US. This timing, whileleading to various interpretations,suggests that the protestsare rooted in Iran's ownmany economic and social problemsthe fact that it stems fromthetruth does not change.
The Administration's Test and the Pezeshkian Factor
Iran isat a critical turning pointtoday. Theadministration's priorityof placing the continuity of the Islamic Republic above all else leads to the insufficiency ofthe comprehensive structural reforms necessary for resolving the crisis,thereby openingThis situation makes the permanent resolution of economic and socialproblemsdifficult.
The policy pursued by President Masoud Pezeshkian regardingthe protestsis significant at this point.His characterization of the protesters' demands as legitimate and his empathy toward them, avoiding labeling them as insurgents,thedismissal, changing the Central Bank governor, andadmitting that the budget needs to be revised,shows that thegovernment is in aneffortto lower the tensionthat it iscan be evaluated as an indicator of.However, the fact that Pezeshkian'sauthority over the security forces islimited shows that the security measurestaken against the protests are not under the full controlof the government.Conclusion
In conclusion
Iran todayis not onlyfacing a severe economic crisis, but also uncertainty. According to official data,reaching 40%,highinflation, risingunemployment, andthe government's implementedThe inadequacy of the economic packages and the depreciation of the currency have brought life in Iran to a standstill. As the recent protests havedemonstrated , both society and the government are facing difficulties.
The deepening anxiety about the future and hopelessness in society, in the face of high prices, arethe decisions the government willtake make it difficult for the public to be satisfied in the short term. For this reason, the possibility that protestswill continue in differentforms and dimensions in the coming daysisstrong. The government's economic and social conditionsit needs to develop new programs to correctthem. However, in this process where economic, social, and ideological problems are deepening, such aregulation seems difficult.
The current picture in Iran points to a fragile process where the economic crisis and the problem of political legitimacy feedeach other. Itindicates. Theadministration'slimited reform steps may lower the tension in the short termeven if it can produce, structural problems remain unresolved, social unrest seems unlikely to come to a permanent end.
Therefore Iran, in the coming period, will either seek a controlled stabilityorwill face new waves of protests where economic and political pressuresareintertwinedandconfront them.will be forced to negotiate.
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