New crisis dynamics in southern Syria: Israel, the Druze, and the regime conflict

Israel's airstrikes on July 16 near the General Staff headquarters building in Damascus and the Presidential Palace once again escalated tensions in the Middle East. The strikes, which drew the world's attention to the region, came immediately after the clashes in Süveyda and once more exposed the ongoing instability in Syria. In this context, Israel's attacks not only targeted the regime but also signalled that the escalating tensions between the Druze and regime forces in southern Syria had taken on an international dimension.

ESCALATING TENSIONS IN SÜVEYDA

In recent days, clashes have been taking place in Süveyda province in southwestern Syria — where the Druze population is concentrated — between the Druze and military elements loyal to the government of Ahmed Şara. This conflict environment, in which ethnic, religious, and political factors are intertwined, has become more complex and multidimensional with Israel's support for the Druze. The strategic importance of the region makes it necessary to assess the actors' intentions more carefully.

The Druze

The Druze, a religious minority with Islamic roots, live in Syria (approximately 700,000), Lebanon (280,000–350,000), and Israel (approximately 118,000) according to population density. Making up approximately 3% of Syria's population, the Druze are concentrated particularly in Süveyda province. The region holds a strategic position due to its geographic proximity to the Golan Heights and is of critical importance to both internal and external actors.

Syria's Druze, unlike the Alawites, were not directly integrated into the power structure. However, following the fall of Assad, they supported the new administration out of security concerns. At the same time, faced with threats from Sunni radical groups during this period, the Druze gradually adopted a cautious and distant stance in their relations with the regime. No clear alliance or enmity has formed between the Druze and the new administration. However, the regime's failure to protect the Druze from radical elements and to guarantee their cultural and religious freedoms has been one of the main causes of social tension in Süveyda.

THE SOURCE OF THE CLASHES

The clashes began with the kidnapping of a Druze merchant on the route between Süveyda and Damascus. Events then escalated into armed clashes between local Druze groups and Sunni Bedouin tribes. The situation was further inflamed by the spread of an audio recording allegedly containing insults against the Prophet Muhammad. When Şara came to power, he made statements that no distinction would be made among minorities, but the killing of hundreds of Alawites damaged trust.

ISRAEL'S SUPPORT: ETHNIC SOLIDARITY OR STRATEGIC MOVE?

Israel's support for the Druze has been observed since 2018 and became even more pronounced following the fall of Beşşar Esad. Behind Israel's stance lie both ethnic affinity and security strategies. Druze who are Israeli citizens are accepted as part of Israeli society and serve in the Israeli military. This distinction is notable when compared to other Arab communities living in Israel.

Israel's effort to create a "security belt" around itself — an extension of its historical security strategy — is being reshaped specifically around Süveyda due to its proximity to the Golan Heights. Within this framework, it can be said that Israel aims to increase its influence in Syria under the pretext of ensuring the security of the Druze.

Israel, which has taken a stance in favour of Assad's removal, actually views the establishment of an Islamist regime in Syria as a threat to itself. Through the support it gave to the Druze in April and May, it also sought to send a message to radical groups.

IS THE GOAL AN AUTONOMOUS DRUZE REGION?

Israel's effort to create a sphere of influence in Süveyda aligns with a strategy of turning the region into a kind of buffer zone. The resemblance between the emblem of the Süveyda Military Council, established in February, and the emblem of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) points to the existence of a political projection in this direction. It is within the realm of possibility that there is a desire to establish in the south an arrangement similar to the de facto autonomous structure achieved in northern Syria through the Kurds in the post-Assad era. This could be a development that deepens the process of Syria's fragmentation.

THE MULTI-LAYERED DYNAMICS OF A REGIONAL CRISIS

Israel's support for the Druze cannot be explained solely by ethnic or religious ties. This support is essentially a reflection of Israel's security-based foreign policy strategy. However, this intervention does not enjoy broad acceptance within the Druze community. Indeed, the statements made by Binyamin Netanyahu in February laid bare this divide. Speaking as a patron of the Druze, Netanyahu stated that they would not allow Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the New Syrian Army to advance south of Damascus, and that they would not tolerate any threat against the Druze in Syria. While this statement was welcomed by some Druze groups and laid the groundwork for cooperation with Israel, it was met with protests and backlash among Druze in various Syrian cities, particularly in Süveyda. This situation demonstrates that there is a serious divergence of opinion within the Druze community regarding external interventions.

Israel's intervention complicates not only Syria's internal politics but also its relations with other influential actors on the Syrian stage — particularly Turkey. The current picture, at a time when ethnic and sectarian fault lines are deepening, could lay the groundwork for triggering a new process of fragmentation in Syria.

Therefore, Israel's intervention should be assessed not merely as a tactical move but as a strategic step aimed at reshaping regional geopolitics. In this context, developments in Süveyda are becoming the stage for a broader, multi-actor power struggle that goes beyond a local conflict. In line with this strategy, Israel tends to increase its military and political engagements aimed at neutralising cross-border threats.