One island, many calculations: The global chess game over Cyprus

According to legend, Cyprus, which takes its name from the "henna flower" or the goddess of love, Kipris, is believed by some historians to derive from the word Kypros, which means "copper" in Greek, due to its rich copper mines. The island became a region where the Turkish population began to settle after it came under the rule of the Ottoman Empire in 1571.

Since the 19th century, Cyprus has emerged as one of the most difficult international problems to resolve. The presence of numerous actors beyond the Turks and Greeks living on the island—such as Greece, Turkey, the UK, the US, and EU countries—is one of the greatest obstacles to a solution.

A STRATEGIC CROSSROADS

Cyprus, one of the three strategic islands in the Mediterranean, offers the ability to control the coasts of Anatolia and North Africa. Because of this feature, it has been the scene of power struggles between many states throughout history. The island is also in a key position regarding the transfer of Middle Eastern oil to the West and the security of maritime routes extending to the Indo-Pacific line via the Suez Canal. Furthermore, its potential to be used as a military and logistical base in a possible regional conflict further increases the island's strategic value. In this framework, Cyprus has become an important part of not only regional but also global security architecture.

The Eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus serve as an energy corridor for transporting Central Asian and Caspian oil to the West; at the same time, they offer the advantage of being able to control maritime trade routes passing through Gibraltar, Suez, and the Black Sea. This situation almost confirms the saying, "he who controls energy resources controls the world."

In addition to being one of the most heavily militarized regions in the world, Cyprus is also a critical center for the UK's military and intelligence activities. The roles it has played in crises and wars throughout history once again reveal the importance the island holds for regional and global security.

The ongoing power struggle between the EU, Israel, the UK, and Turkey is reshaping the future of the Eastern Mediterranean.

The balance of power between the EU, Israel, the UK, and Turkey is shaping the future of the Eastern Mediterranean. For Europe, Cyprus has strategic importance in terms of energy supply security, foreign trade routes, and Mediterranean policies; the EU views Cyprus as a critical point in this regard.

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the EU turned toward Cyprus to gain influence in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean, a process that resulted in the membership of the Greek Cypriot side. Today, the EU's desire not to lose its influence over Cyprus is part of this geopolitical calculation.

Between energy routes, military bases, and the calculations of great powers, Cyprus continues to be both a security and identity issue for Turkey.

Having remained under the administration of many empires to date, Cyprus continues to be a field of competition for great powers. For this reason, the island has not been able to achieve lasting peace and stability.

For Turkey, Cyprus is not only a strategic issue but also a national one. The island's importance is significant for the security of our southern coasts. Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's words during a military exercise, "Gentlemen, as long as Cyprus is in enemy hands, the supply routes of this region are blocked. Pay attention to Cyprus. This island is very important for us," clearly reveal this strategic reality.

However, the most fundamental meaning of Cyprus for Turkey is the continued existence of the Turkish community on the island, which shares the same language, culture, and origin. The security and freedom of this community, living just 40 nautical miles from Turkey's borders, is a red line for Turkey. The lesson learned from the loss of Crete clearly shows the reason for the sensitivity regarding Cyprus.

NEW ALLIANCES, OLD CONCERNS

In recent years, the alliances formed between Israel and the Republic of Cyprus, Israel's deployment of an air defense system in the region, and similar steps taken by Greece have created serious security concerns for Turkey.

The UK's bases have the capacity to provide logistical support for operations targeting Gaza, Syria, and Iran. This situation contributes to the tension between Turkey and Israel being shaped in a regional context that also includes Cyprus.

TWO SOLUTION PLANS AND NORTHERN CYPRUS'S IMAGE STRUGGLE

While Turkey pursues a policy in favor of a two-state solution, President of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus Tufan Erhürman advocates for a bi-zonal, bi-communal federal governance model. However, Erhürman has expressed that he is in favor of result-oriented negotiations where political equality and the inviolability of Turkey's guarantee are at the forefront. The United Nations also continues to address the issue along the axis of a "federal solution." Therefore, it will be an important step for Turkey to strengthen channels of dialogue and cooperation with the new administration after the election process is completed.

On the other hand, Northern Cyprus has been associated in recent years with negative activities such as illegal gambling, money laundering, and arms and human trafficking. For this image to change, reform in the legal system, transparent oversight, and a sustainable economic structure with Turkey's support are necessary. If the Erhürman administration takes decisive steps in this regard, the legitimacy and reputation of the Turkish Cypriot community will be strengthened.

CONCLUSION

At the root of the Cyprus problem lies the mutual distrust between the two communities. In the negotiations held in Switzerland in 2017, the formula of a "bi-zonal, bi-communal federation based on political equality" had yielded no results. When current conditions are evaluated, it seems difficult for this model to achieve success in the near future.

History has shown that the Cyprus issue cannot be resolved without Turkey's active role. Turkey will maintain its status as a guarantor state and will be the guarantor of peace and stability on the island. However, in this process, it is the only key to a lasting solution that all parties act based on diplomacy and mutual respect, away from divisive language.