The great showdown in the Gulf

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a federal structure consisting of seven small sheikhdoms located in the Persian Gulf, each with monarchical traditions. Standing out as one of the most prominent examples of a city-centered federative structure in the Arab world, the UAE derives its economic power largely from oil and natural gas revenues. However, the country has not limited itself to an economy based solely on energy exports; it has also made significant investments in areas such as green energy, civil nuclear energy, the defense industry, cyber technology, artificial intelligence, and space technologies.

Thanks to its economic capacity, strategic geographical location, and the relationships it has established through global trade networks, the UAE has evolved over time from being merely an economic actor into a country that is influential in regional security and geopolitical balances.

Historical background of UAE-Iran tension

Relations between the UAE and Iran should be evaluated not only through current regional crises but also within the framework of historical and geopolitical rivalry. The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the Persian Gulf and the Suez Canal in 1971 created a significant power vacuum in the region and brought new security problems with it. One of the fundamental disputes that emerged during this process is the issue of claims over the Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa islands in the Persian Gulf.

This island dispute, which has become one of the core points of contention in relations between Iran and the UAE, has made political mistrust between the two countries permanent. The UAE's support for the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 and its adoption of a position close to the sanctions against Iran have further increased the tension between the UAE and Iran.

Nevertheless, the relationship between the two countries also includes economic interdependence and mutual interests. It can be said that Iran does not view the UAE as a direct existential threat, but rather attempts to prevent it from turning into a front that would threaten its own national security.

The UAE's regional activities after the Arab Spring

Following the Arab Spring in 2011, a significant shift occurred in the UAE's foreign policy approach. Having previously remained largely in the shadow of Saudi Arabia, the UAE began to pursue a more active and interventionist foreign policy after this process.

The UAE has been influential, directly or indirectly, in crisis areas such as Yemen, Libya, and Sudan, and has attempted to create a regional sphere of influence through port investments, military bases, and proxy actors. At the same time, it has acted in concert with Western countries to combat radical organizations like ISIS and has strengthened security cooperation.

Abu Dhabi, the capital and wealthiest emirate of the UAE, has considered limiting Iran's regional influence as one of its primary security priorities. For this reason, the UAE has been among the leading Gulf countries supporting the US policy of pressure on Iran. Furthermore, it has played an active role in initiatives aimed at forming an "Arab NATO" alliance among Arab countries against Iran's regional influence.

The trade and security dilemma

Despite political tensions, economic relations between Iran and the UAE have remained strong for many years. Dubai has become an important trade, finance, and logistics hub for Iranian capital and Iranian companies. A significant portion of the Iranian population living in the UAE is also concentrated in this city. However, the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and the re-intensification of sanctions have significantly weakened this economic balance.

Consequently, different priorities have occasionally emerged between Abu Dhabi's security-oriented Iran policy and Dubai's commercial interests. This situation demonstrates that there is a delicate balance within the UAE between economic pragmatism and security concerns.

The UAE's strategic rapprochement with the US and Israel

The close relationship the UAE has established with the US has been one of the determining factors in its foreign policy and security strategy. Its location at the entrance of the Persian Gulf and on trade routes extending to Central Asia provides the country with a significant strategic advantage. However, this geographical position also brings serious security risks.

While the UAE administration was concerned about Arab nationalist organizations and regional instability in the past, it later began to view Iranian-backed groups and other actors such as al-Qaeda and ISIS as security threats. For this reason, the country seeks to ensure its security largely through the military and strategic partnership it has established with the US.

For the US, the UAE is considered both an important arms market and a strategic partner in limiting Iran's regional influence. This mutual security relationship has deepened even further in recent years with the developing ties with Israel.

For Israel, the Gulf countries offer significant opportunities not only in the field of security but also in technology, energy, intelligence, and the economy. For this reason, UAE-Israel relations have developed rapidly following the Abraham Accords. However, this rapprochement has also brought about various debates within the Arab world and Gulf public opinion.

During periods when Iran-Israel tensions escalated, reports surfaced suggesting that Israel had deployed an air defense system to the UAE and that Israeli military personnel to operate this system had been sent. Additionally, according to leaked documents, allegations that Israel would establish a military base in the Arrade region of the UAE, near the Saudi Arabian border, have also increased security concerns, particularly in Arab countries. Furthermore, the visit to the UAE by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, along with the heads of Mossad and Shin Bet, caused controversy despite denials from UAE officials. Although the parties have rejected some of these allegations, the resulting debates indicate that new security balances are forming in the Gulf.

This picture shows that the UAE is placing greater emphasis on its relations with its Western allies and Israel in its security approach.

Egypt's involvement in the process and new security equations

Recent developments in the Middle East directly affect not only the Gulf countries but also regional actors such as Egypt. Egypt's deployment of Rafale fighter jets, which have very important functions, to the Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE is considered a noteworthy development in terms of regional security balances. This base has previously hosted the US and France as well.

This step by Egypt can be associated with efforts to protect the security of the Suez Canal in the face of threats from the Houthis toward the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea line.

However, the fact that these developments coincide with the ceasefire process between Iran and the US has also brought about discussions that conflicts in the region could escalate again. In particular, the military mobility in the Gulf shows that the mistrust between the parties still persists.

On the other hand, considering the economic support the UAE has provided to the Egyptian economy since 2013, its infrastructure investments, and the political support it has given to the administration of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, it is evident that Egypt-UAE relations have gained a strategic dimension.

Nevertheless, it is known that Iran perceives the use of bases in Gulf countries against it as a direct threat. For this reason, Iran may evaluate Egypt within this scope as well, and view the increase in foreign military presence in the region as a justification for harsher attacks. Such a scenario could increase the risk of the conflict spreading while also creating serious pressure on regional economies.

Conclusion

Relations between the UAE and Iran are not limited to bilateral disputes between the two countries. This relationship is also located at the intersection of multi-layered elements such as Gulf security, the US regional strategy, Israel's normalization policies, and energy geopolitics.

It is observed that the Gulf countries with monarchical structures relied on the security support of the UK in the past, and now largely on that of the US. The relations developed with Israel in recent times also constitute a new dimension of this security architecture.

As seen in the call by US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, the possibility that Gulf countries may be forced to make clearer choices between Iran and Israel in the coming period could deepen the polarization in the region. This situation could lead to consequences that affect a wide area, from energy trade to financial relations, not just security balances. Therefore, the future of UAE-Iran relations will be shaped not only by the policies of the two countries but also by the direction of the general geopolitical transformation in the Middle East.