The search for balance in Iran

Protests in Iran have been continuing for 10 days. During the first days of the protests, the administration and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made statements acknowledging mistakes, particularly in the economic field, and took steps such as sending determined messages regarding the establishment of a dialogue with the public and replacing the Governor of the Central Bank, in an effort to soften the process.gave the impressionthat it would be managed in asharp manner. However, in the following days, this tolerant approach gave way to harsher measures based on the regime's self-preservation.was Iraq.

During thisprocess, the messages from Reza Pahlavi, son of Shah Reza Pahlavi, have also frequently drawn attention.For the first time in many years, he hasmadeclearcalled on the public to "be readyfor the struggle" andmade a call, finding support from some circles. Thiscall andappeal, some even if it finds support from circles it appears likely that any potential change in Iranwould occur as a transformation within the system rather than a sudden and radicalrevolution.According to this plan,it seems probable thatPresident Masoud Pezeshkian will not be arrested orremoved from office. in the event that he is not killed, Reza Pahlavi's coordinated formation of a technocratic transitional government, and then electionsthe possibility of a new administration taking shape through electionsmay come to the agenda.

The possibility of a civilwar in Iranappears to be weak.However, ethnic groups's demands for autonomy constitute one of the country's mostfragile areas. Thepolitical representation of Kurdish, Baluch, Arab, and Turkic identities has, in the future, become an element that coulddirectly affectIran'snationalintegrity. This situation has become a factor that could directly affect Iran's national integrity. This situation, external pcreates a ground open to the manipulation ofthird parties. However, when looking at thestatements made byTurks, Balochs, and Kurds,itis clear that these groups arelargely in favor of a federal statestructure.is observed. This pictureclearly demonstrates why thepossibilityofcivil waris lowin a more distinctmanner.

There Are Things That Will Not Change Even If the Regime Changes in Iran

On the other hand, there are some fundamental elements in Iran that will not change even if the regime changes. The current protests demonstrate that the social threshold of fear has been crossed and that an open resistance against the regime hasemerged.However, thisdoes notnecessarilythe religious leader'sduty toleave or the country'sabroad departurewith theadministrationeven if it changes, in Iran thesecurity reflex, theperception of external threats, and decision-making mechanisms willcontinue to exist due tostrong institutionalization.Inshort, leaders may change, and the form ofpressure as wellmay change, but the reflexes based on the regime and thesecurity-centered management approachwill not disappear in the short term.

A complete change of the regime would only be possible if theoffice of the Supreme Leaderbecomesentirelydysfunctional and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps loses its loyalty to the regime.might be possible. Indeed, according to somelocal sources,in the Lorestan and Bakhtiari regions, some Revolutionary Guardelements laying down their arms and acting alongside the public shows that the regime isexperiencing a serious lossin its security foundation.This developmentis significant in that it indicates the regime's claim of absolute control is increasingly weakening on the ground. is important.

For manyyears, the nuclear program, which has been used as an element of pressure against Iran,is also ofsignificance in thiscontext. Nuclearactivities are viewed by both conservatives and reformists through nationalist sentimentshas become a source of national pride. For this reason, it should not be expected that the knowledge and infrastructure accumulated over years will be abandoned overnight. However, Iran'sstrategy conducted throughproxyforces in the region will experience a seriousbreak. In conclusion,even if the system undergoes certainchanges, it will showcontinuity in specific areas.

The possibility of an Israeli attack

In thisprocess, a potentialattack byIsrael against Iran is also being discussed. According to some news sources,a strike by Israel against Iranthe possibility of alimited attack is on theagenda. However, from the statements made by the US andIsrael,it is clear that their primary goal is not to directly lead the Iranian people, but rather toexploit the internalturmoil in Iran.an approachthat they have adopted is understood. Therefore, for external intervention, it is seen that the appropriate conditions have not yet formed. However,it is observed that convincing the Iranian people that the end of the regime has arrived stands as a critical threshold for this scenario to be implemented.In thisregard, it remains a critical threshold. within this framework, a possibleIsraeli attack is more likely to occur in the form oflimited strikes targeting high-level Iranian officials or oil facilities,rather than a large-scalemilitaryoperation.appears.

Following the developments in Venezuela, the question of whether a similar process will be experienced in Iran is being discussed more and more. There are both similarities and significant structural differences between Iran and Venezuela. Both significant structuraldifferences exist. Both countries view the U.S. as a threat and an enepositioning as an enemy and the fact that the regimes have authoritarianforms of governanceare among the primary similarities. In contrast, the governance structure in Iranismuch stronger and more institutionalized compared to Venezuela.In Iran, the legitimacy of the regime is based on the Velayat-e Faqih, which centers on religious authority.

In Iran, the legitimacy of the regime is based on the Velayat-e Faqih, which centers on religious authority.is based on the doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih.In Venezuela, however, although the regime derives its legitimacy from the people, this principle has not always been applied in a stablemanner.There is an ideology, but this ideologyserves to keep the administration in power.

The nature of social movementsisclear.there are also significant differences in terms ofthe subject. The protests in Iran have spread to a broad base that is not limited to a specific class, encompassing women, youth,ethnic and religious minorities,tradespeople, and various social segments. In contrast, the street movements in Venezuela have been more focused on the lower-middleclass, pstudents and public service workers came to the forefront, and the protests remained limited to class-based and economic demands.

Conclusion

The protests in Iran have deepened the regime's crisis of legitimacy and demonstrated that the threshold of fear in society has been crossed.explicitlydemonstrated.However, this picture is not so much about a regime collapsein the short term, but rather the system attempting to balance itself and survive through security-focused methodsdemonstrates. Although Reza Pahlavi serves as a symbolic reference for the protests,he lacks the state and security supportnecessary to implement regime change.The fact that the international community's reactionhas remained largely at the level of rhetoricis also noteworthy.is also noteworthy. is attractive. For this reason, what is happening in Iranpoints to a long-term power struggle and limited changes rather than a sudden and deep-rooted revolution.The regime is shaking, but the institutional continuity of the state is being maintained for now.Regime changewill occur either through a harsh and rapid collapse or a ground for compromise between the parties.

The current situation suggests that the regime is struggling to maintain its grip while facing internal pressures. can be realized throughit. However, the increasing loss of life is progressively weakening the possibility of a consensus. Even if the current regimemanages to maintain its power, itappears inevitable that it willhave to turn towardfundamental changes.This is because, at the currentstage, returning to the old balanceTurningbackis notpossible.