Wars do not begin on the battlefield

Wars often do not begin the moment the first shot is fired; on the contrary, they are an indication that long-accumulating tensions have become visible. 

The military operation launched by Pakistan against Afghanistan on February 27, while appearing at first glance to be a new reflection of chronic security issues between the two countries, requires looking at this intervention from a broader perspective due to the timing of the developments. This operation, which directly targets the Taliban administration, is far from being a move that can be explained solely from the perspective of border security or counter-terrorism.

Reading the current picture solely through a security lens is insufficient. This is because Pakistan's operation took place just one day before the attack by Israel and the US on Iran. This striking timing suggests that the developments in the region are not independent of one another, but rather could be parts of a larger strategic picture.

In line with these developments, at a time when military pressure on Iran is increasing, Pakistan opening a military front on the Afghanistan line has brought the discussions of “encircling Iran” back to the agenda. While the Taliban administration in Afghanistan declaring its support for Iran makes the breaking points in the region even more pronounced, the defense cooperation Pakistan has developed with Saudi Arabia provides clues of a possible regional confrontation.

Furthermore, the multi-dimensional foreign policy that Pakistan has pursued in recent years is also noteworthy. While maintaining its economic and strategic relations with China on one hand, Islamabad is seeking a rapprochement with the US on the other, effectively trying to strike a balance between the two major powers. Moreover, the fact that the US has withdrawn from Afghanistan does not mean it has left the region; on the contrary, it appears that the US is trying to establish a new balance-of-power policy through Pakistan.

In this context, three fundamental elements stand out in the background of this strategy: limiting China's regional influence, balancing Iran, and keeping access to Central Asia's energy and rare earth resources under control. Therefore, Pakistan's operation against Afghanistan should be read not only as a security move but also as an economic and geopolitical one.

On the other hand, Afghanistan's recent reduction of its economic dependence on Pakistan by developing alternative trade routes with Iran and India represents a serious strategic loss for Islamabad. India's move to open up to Central Asia via the Chabahar Port carries the potential to exclude Pakistan from the regional trade equation. This situation clearly shows how intertwined military moves are with economic competition.

As a natural consequence of these developments, the tension currently experienced between Pakistan and Afghanistan has ceased to be merely a border issue between two countries. This line, which connects South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, is becoming one of the new fronts of global power competition.

Indeed, at a time when military pressure on Iran is increasing and energy and trade corridors are being reshaped, Afghanistan's geo-strategic position has become even more critical. Any instability in this geography could affect not only the countries in the region but also a vast economic and security network extending from Russia to Europe.

In conclusion, Pakistan's operation against Afghanistan cannot be evaluated as merely a border security move or an instantaneous military reflex. This development is part of a geopolitical crisis chain that has emerged simultaneously with the Iran war and is gradually expanding.

Therefore, the picture before us today is very clear: Conflicts occurring on different fronts are, in fact, different moves in the same strategic game. And this game has now grown large enough to reshape not just regional, but global power balances.