The Zangezur Corridor: Geopolitical chess in the South Caucasus

Transportation corridors provide significant advantages to regional states from a geopolitical and geoeconomic perspective. These corridors strengthen commercial ties while offering economic gains by reducing time and costs. As has been the case throughout history, the race to establish dominance over transportation routes continues today. The South Caucasus is one of the regions where this competition is most intense.

THE STRATEGIC ISSUE OF THE ZANGEZUR CORRIDOR

The Zangezur Corridor, which will connect the southeast of Armenia with the southwest of Azerbaijan, holds strategic importance for regional and global powers. Although the region possesses vast arable lands, its true value lies in its potential as a transportation route connecting Asia to Europe, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East. Therefore, control of the corridor signifies geopolitical power beyond its economic returns.

PERSPECTIVES OF REGIONAL STATES ON THE CORRIDOR 

Article 9 of the tripartite statement (Azerbaijan–Russia–Armenia) signed after the 44-day Karabakh War (September 27 – November 10, 2020) brought the reopening of transportation corridors in the region to the agenda. With this article, obstacles to the establishment of direct relations between regional states would be removed, and East-West and North-South connections would be facilitated. However, while the Zangezur Corridor offers significant opportunities to regional countries, it also brings with it a lack of mutual trust and geopolitical concerns.

Azerbaijan: Considers the opening of the corridor, which it views as an opportunity to establish a direct connection between its own territory of Nakhchivan and its mainland, as well as Turkey, a strategic gain. It is intensifying its diplomatic efforts with Turkey in line with this goal.

Turkey: Aims to strengthen its economic, political, and logistical ties with the Caucasus and Central Asian states through the corridor, which it supports based on linguistic, historical, and cultural bonds. Although there is a perception in some circles that Turkey is pursuing an "expansionist" policy in this process, it is clear that the corridor actually offers an opportunity to improve regional cooperation and mutual economic relations.

Armenia: While it views the corridor as a threat to its territorial integrity, it is also aware that it offers an opportunity to break its long-standing isolation and reintegrate into regional trade networks.

Iran: Is concerned that the Zangezur Corridor could harm its national interests and weaken its land connection to Europe. It is also worried about the increasing influence of non-regional actors such as NATO and Israel in the South Caucasus and the deepening of its own geopolitical encirclement. Despite this, the opening of the corridor also offers commercial opportunities that would alleviate its economic isolation.

Russia: Is closely monitoring this development, which will facilitate Turkey's access to the Caspian Sea, Central Asia, and the Far East via Azerbaijan. The opening of the corridor is important for Russia in terms of both regional balance and its own transportation and trade strategies.

THE ROLE OF THE US AND NEW BALANCES

The agreement signed under the leadership of US President Donald Trump has the potential to change the power balances in the Caucasus. Within the scope of the agreement, the US will build a transit corridor under its own control between Azerbaijan and Armenia and will operate this corridor for 99 years. This development will:

•Reduce Russia's influence,

•Make China's Belt and Road Initiative dependent on the corridor,

•Limit Iran's access to Europe and the Black Sea.

Thus, the US will become a neighbor to Iran. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, on the other hand, approaches this plan positively due to assurances that Armenia will retain sovereignty over the corridor and that Iran's connection to Europe will not be severed.

TURKEY'S POSITION

Turkey is one of the biggest supporters of the Zangezur Corridor. Not being at the negotiating table does not mean it is being sidelined. Considering its relations with Azerbaijan and the US, Turkey is one of the important actors in the process, even if indirectly. The opening of the corridor will provide Turkey with economic gains and strategic advantages.

Conclusion 

The history of these lands teaches an important lesson: Maps are drawn at the table, but the future is determined by the courage of peoples and leaders. The Zangezur Corridor is not just a transportation line; it is a strategic artery with the potential to reset power balances. While it promises economic and political gains for Turkey and Azerbaijan, it means a new opportunity for regional integration for Armenia, and a critical challenge on the border line for Iran. External actors such as the US, Russia, and the EU are also playing their own pieces behind the scenes of this game.

Although all parties are "at the table" for the corridor today, moves cannot be completed without addressing security concerns and overcoming the wall of mutual distrust. In this geopolitical equation of the Caucasus, the path to lasting peace lies not in moves, but in consensus.