Ahmet Ercan warns that city by giving a date: It will see a 7.9 magnitude earthquake

A conference titled “Why Do Earthquakes Cause Destruction?” was held at Erzincan Binali Yıldırım University by Turkish scientist and senior geophysicist Prof. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan.

Speaking at the conference, Prof. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan addressed the causes of destructive earthquakes in Turkey and discussed the earthquakes that have occurred in Erzincan.

Pointing out that Erzincan earthquakes are the first thing that comes to mind when earthquakes are mentioned, Ercan touched upon the destructive effects of past earthquakes in this region. Providing information about the ground structures on the Euphrates (Karasu) river sediment, Ercan stated that the factors causing structural collapse are problems originating from the ground, poor quality of building materials, and errors in construction design.

Touching on the stages of structural behavior during earthquakes, Ercan informed participants about buildings constructed in Erzincan before and after earthquakes.

"TURKEY IS NOT AN EARTHQUAKE COUNTRY"

Stating that a major earthquake could occur in Erzincan between 2035 and 2045, Ercan made the following remarks:

“You know that the 1939 Erzincan earthquake is the largest earthquake in the history of the Republic. When an earthquake is mentioned in Turkey, especially among us scientists, Erzincan immediately comes to mind.

Turkey is not an earthquake country. For Turkey to be an earthquake country, there would need to be earthquakes above 8. Apart from one earthquake in the 17th century, Turkey has never had an earthquake larger than 8. Therefore, Turkey is not a first-degree earthquake country like Japan or the Philippines, but it ranks in the top five in the world due to the destruction that occurs in Turkey. So, what is the reason for this? We will examine these. The earthquake in Erzincan happened at night and it was a winter day. The weather was minus 30 degrees. People freeze to death in this weather. They also died by burning because the stoves were lit in the houses."

"IT WILL SEE A 7.9 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE"

"On the other hand, if an earthquake has occurred in a place, an earthquake of the same magnitude will occur there in the future. In other words, if Erzincan saw a 7.9 in 1939, Erzincan will see a 7.9 magnitude earthquake in the future," said Ercan, adding, "Therefore, we need to prepare our construction process in Erzincan as if an 8 magnitude earthquake is coming."

Ercan continued as follows:

"Erzincan was small back then, it is larger now. To take precautions in Erzincan, it will be too late tomorrow. If a destructive earthquake is expected early in Erzincan, I expect an earthquake between 2035 and 2045. In the long-term expectation, an earthquake could occur around 2300, but the period between 2035 and 2045 seems more likely. By the way, could an earthquake happen sooner? It could. Because the behavioral characteristic in Erzincan is like that."

News Source: İHA