Ank-Ar election poll: Results are in for Erdoğan, Yavaş, İmamoğlu, and Özel scenarios

Nefes columnist Aytunç Erkin, in his column today, addressed the recent debates surrounding the CHP before presenting the results of a public opinion poll conducted by Ank-Ar Research and Consultancy.

Striking results were obtained in the survey, which was conducted with 2,004 people between June 26 and 28, 2026.

The study measured three separate scenarios in which Ankara Metropolitan Municipality (ABB) Mayor Mansur Yavaş, imprisoned Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (İBB) Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, and the elected Chairman of the CHP, Özgür Özel, were candidates against AKP Chairman and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Participants were also asked about the "absolute nullity" (mutlak butlan) debates concerning the CHP and their views on Özgür Özel.

ERDOĞAN-YAVAŞ SCENARIO

Participants were asked, "If Mansur Yavaş and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan were presidential candidates, who would you vote for?"

According to the research;

Mansur Yavaş: 46.2%

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 32.4%

I would not vote: 16%

Undecided: 5.4%

ERDOĞAN-İMAMOĞLU SCENARIO

The responses to the question, "If Ekrem İmamoğlu and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan were presidential candidates, who would you vote for?" were as follows:

Ekrem İmamoğlu: 44.6%

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 35.8%

I would not vote: 14%

Undecided: 5.7%

Erdoğan-Özel scenario

The survey also asked, "If Özgür Özel and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan were presidential candidates, who would you vote for?"

The preferences of the participants were ranked as follows:

Özgür Özel: 42.4%

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 37.6%

I would not vote: 13.7%

Undecided: 6.3%

PREFERENCES OF PARTY VOTERS WERE ALSO MEASURED

The research also examined the preferences of voters from different parties regarding potential presidential candidates.

For Mansur Yavaş;

İYİ Party voters: 91%

Anahtar Party voters: 61.7%

Zafer Party voters: 92.9%

Yeniden Refah Party voters: 61.9%

DEM Party voters: 29.2%

For Ekrem İmamoğlu;

İYİ Party voters: 60.3%

Anahtar Party voters: 23.3%

Zafer Party voters: 71.4%

Yeniden Refah Party voters: 19%

DEM Party voters: 79.2%

For Özgür Özel;

İYİ Party voters: 51.3%

Anahtar Party voters: 18.3%

Zafer Party voters: 66.1%

Yeniden Refah Party voters: 14.3%

DEM Party voters: 75%

"Absolute nullity" question was also asked

Participants were also asked whether they would approve of a potential "absolute nullity" decision against the CHP.

The results were as follows:

I do not approve: 58.5%

I approve: 25.8%

I have no opinion: 15.7%

"WHAT SHOULD ÖZGÜR ÖZEL DO?" QUESTION

The survey also asked how Özgür Özel and his team should act in the event of a possible absolute nullity decision.

The participants' responses were ranked as follows:

A new party should be established: 39.6%

They should continue the struggle within the CHP: 24.2%

They should join another political party: 20.4%

TRUST QUESTION REGARDING ÖZGÜR ÖZEL

Finally, the research asked the question, "Do you find Özgür Özel trustworthy?"

Of the participants;

42.8% stated they find him trustworthy,

while 48.9% stated they do not find him trustworthy.