Bahçeli's İmralı move shifts the balance in the People's Alliance! Fear of grassroots backlash in AKP, fear of expulsion in MHP

The commission established in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM) as part of the second reconciliation process—which the government calls a "Terror-Free Turkey"—initiated by MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, will hold a critical vote tomorrow regarding the planned visit to İmralı.

While it is stated that a tendency toward a "no" vote is strengthening in AKP corridors due to potential reactions from their grassroots, MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli's declaration that "I will go if necessary" has suddenly changed the political balance in Ankara.

According to a report by Cumhuriyet, these words from Bahçeli are being interpreted as a clear message and a stern warning to AKP Chairman and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan within the People's Alliance.

FEAR OF EXPULSION WITHIN MHP

It is claimed in political circles that there are a small number of deputies within the MHP who object to the process, but they cannot raise their voices due to the risk of potential expulsion.

There is even talk that one deputy might be referred to the disciplinary board for failing to stand up and applaud during a group meeting.

31 YES VOTES ARE ENOUGH FOR THE İMRALI VISIT

There are a total of 51 members in the commission, and 31 "yes" votes are considered sufficient for the decision to visit to pass. It is stated that this majority can be achieved arithmetically with the support of the People's Alliance and the DEM Party.

Furthermore, it is reported that the New Way Group also views the process positively. Therefore, it is assessed that the final decision will depend on the stance of the AKP.

On the other hand, MHP's Feti Yıldız's statement before the vote that "The commission will decide to go to İmralı" clearly revealed his party's expectation.

AKP CONCERNED ABOUT VOTES

In the AKP group, a tendency toward a "no" vote is prevailing due to potential reactions from the grassroots and the fragility that has emerged following the local elections.

Although an evaluation meeting on the subject is scheduled to be held within the party today, it is stated that President Erdoğan's attitude will be decisive in shaping the decision.

Erdoğan's words, "The matter is the responsibility of our deputies," are being interpreted in political circles as "a 'yes' vote could emerge if they are persuaded."

It is noted that if a "no" result emerges from the vote, all eyes will turn back to Bahçeli.

In MHP circles, it is emphasized that Bahçeli's move is not a step back, but a clear message given to the AKP's hesitant stance.

Some MHP strategists are assessing the situation by saying, "If the commission does not go, Bahçeli will go; if Bahçeli goes, the alliance cannot be sustained."

İYİ PARTY PREPARING FOR A RALLY

The İYİ Party, for its part, is preparing to organize a large rally on the same day if any delegation goes to İmralı. The party leadership states that they will demonstrate a firm and organized stance against the process.

News Source: 12punto