CHP's vote share is changing: Kılıçdaroğlu and Özgür Özel scenarios compared

The findings of the "Turkey's Preferences" survey, conducted by SONAR Research with the participation of 2,080 people across 29 provinces in May 2026, have been shared with the public.

Within the scope of the research, participants were asked, "How do you evaluate the court's decision to invalidate the CHP congress (issuing a decision of absolute nullity)?"

ONLY 5 PERCENT OF CHP VOTERS FOUND THE DECISION CORRECT

While 40.1 percent of those who participated in the research stated that the decision in question was wrong, 11.3 percent stated that they did not find the decision appropriate. While the rate of those who found the decision correct was measured at 26.8 percent, 5.6 percent of the participants remained undecided. A 16.2 percent segment did not express an opinion.

In the assessment made specifically for CHP voters, 69.4 percent of the participants said the decision was wrong, while 17.4 percent stated they did not find it appropriate. The rate of CHP voters who found the decision correct was recorded at 5 percent.

57.9 PERCENT OF AKP VOTERS SUPPORT THE DECISION

While 57.9 percent of AKP voters stated that they found the court's decision correct, 12.8 percent expressed the view that the decision was wrong.

While the rate of those who found the decision wrong among DEM Party voters was measured at 72.3 percent, this rate was 55.5 percent among Zafer Party voters.

The research also asked, "Do you approve of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu becoming the CHP Chairman again following the court decision?" While 55.2 percent of the participants answered this question with "no, I do not approve," 31.3 percent stated that they approved.

Among CHP voters, the rate of those opposing Kılıçdaroğlu becoming chairman again was measured at 89.7 percent. The rate of those who supported it remained at 7.7 percent.

CHP VOTERS SIDE WITH ÖZGÜR ÖZEL

According to the research results, 43.3 percent of the participants stated that they found Özgür Özel and his team to be in the right regarding the debates within the CHP. While the rate of those who found Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and his team to be in the right was 26.5 percent, an 8.9 percent segment stated that they found both sides to be in the wrong.

Among CHP voters, the rate of those who found Özgür Özel and his team to be in the right was calculated at 85 percent. The rate of those who found Kılıçdaroğlu and his team to be in the right remained at the 4.4 percent level.

In the research, 78.7 percent of CHP voters stated that Özgür Özel should be re-elected as chairman at the first upcoming congress, while 13.2 percent wanted a different candidate to take office.

STRIKING RESULT IN THE NEW PARTY SCENARIO

Regarding the question about the possibility of the congress being postponed and the CHP going into a potential early election with a leadership where Özgür Özel is not the chairman, 59.5 percent of CHP voters stated that Özgür Özel and his team should form a new party. The rate of those who did not agree with this view was measured at 29.5 percent.

According to the research, if Özgür Özel were to participate in the election with a new party, his vote share would be 26.6 percent, while the vote share of the CHP under the leadership of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu was calculated at 5.2 percent.

AKP IN FIRST PLACE IN KILIÇDAROĞLU SCENARIO

In the scenario prepared with the assumption that Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is the CHP Chairman, the CHP's vote share was measured at 9.1 percent. In the same scenario, the vote shares of other parties were ranked as follows:

AKP: 20.9 percent

CHP: 9.1 percent

DEM Party: 9 percent

İYİ Party: 8.8 percent

MHP: 7.5 percent

Zafer Party: 3.9 percent

A Party: 3.1 percent

TİP: 1.9 percent

YRP: 0.9 percent

BBP: 0.8 percent

Other: 3.5 percent

I would cast an invalid vote: 2.6 percent

Undecided: 11 percent

I will not go to the polls: 11.6 percent

No answer: 5.4 percent

CHP RISES TO THE TOP IN THE ÖZGÜR ÖZEL SCENARIO

In the scenario where Özgür Özel is re-elected as chairman, the CHP's vote share was measured at 29.8 percent.

In this scenario, the parties' vote shares were ranked as follows:

AKP: 23 percent

DEM Party: 7.1 percent

İYİ Party: 6.7 percent

MHP: 6.6 percent

Zafer Party: 2.6 percent

A Party: 2.5 percent

YRP: 0.9 percent

BBP: 0.9 percent

Other: 1.8 percent

I would cast an invalid vote: 1.2 percent

Undecided: 6.5 percent

I will not go to the polls: 5.5 percent

No answer: 4.9 percent

CITIZENS WANT EARLY ELECTIONS

In the research, 56.3 percent of the participants stated that an early general election should be held, while 37.9 percent expressed that they were against an early election.