A "critical" analysis from Bloomberg for Turkey: The G20 country with the highest risk of political turmoil

According to a Bloomberg Economics analysis, Turkey is at the top of the list among the world's largest economies where the probability of experiencing severe political turmoil is highest.

Russia and the US followed immediately behind Turkey on the list.

According to the analysis, the probability of internal unrest occurring next year among G20 countries is at 6 percent for Turkey, 4 percent for Russia, and 3 percent for the US.

The model, which focuses on different variables, looks at whether a country is a democracy, an autocracy, or a semi-democracy. There is also a metric that examines differences between social groups as well as differences within institutions and politics. 

HIGH BORROWING COSTS, LOW INVESTMENTS, SLOW GROWTH...

Economic problems such as high borrowing costs, low investments, and slower growth that unstable countries are exposed to are also among the factors affecting the risks.

Monty G. Marshall, director of the US-based research organization Center for Systemic Peace, stated that the level of political rhetoric, the lack of respect among political leaders, rapid and effective communication links, and the easy availability of weapons increase the risk of political turmoil.

Bloomberg Economics analyst Nick Hallmark said, "Forecasts for rare events like internal conflict involve a high degree of uncertainty. Nevertheless, the model is useful for creating an analytical framework around the rising risks in the US."

According to Hallmark, he added, "If institutional decay continues and political violence increases, then the US's economic performance, low borrowing costs for the Treasury, and even the dollar's reserve currency status cannot be guaranteed."

News Source: 12punto