Critical warning for Marmara from Şener Üşümezsoy

Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy, who accurately predicted the location of the 6.2-magnitude earthquake that occurred off the coast of Silivri on April 23, made striking assessments regarding earthquake risks in the Marmara Region. Üşümezsoy stated that the widespread views suggesting a major earthquake will occur in Istanbul lack a scientific basis.

In a video published on his YouTube channel, Üşümezsoy criticized the views that stress was transferred to the Adalar Fault after the 1999 earthquake and that an earthquake of over 7 magnitude is expected there. Based on his own analyses, he emphasized that the real danger is the fault segment within the Kumburgaz basin. He stated that because this fault is at a shallow depth of 10 km, it cannot produce a major earthquake and that the expected earthquake will remain below a magnitude of 6.5.

Üşümezsoy also pointed to two dangerous zones located south of Istanbul. He stated that the Bozburun Fault (Armutlu Peninsula) was loaded with stress after the 1999 Gölcük earthquake and has not yet ruptured. He also said that the Sarıköy Fault (South Marmara) has been accumulating stress since the 1953 Yenice-Gönen earthquake and carries a significant risk.

Üşümezsoy argued that the 1912 Şarköy-Mürefte earthquake largely released the seismic stress around Tekirdağ and Saros, and therefore the actual risk has accumulated on the fault lines located in the south of the Sea of Marmara.

News Source: 12punto