Earthquake scenario in CHP: The party Özgür Özel would form takes first place

The results of the general election poll conducted by Gündemar Research Company between the 24th and 27th have been shared with the public. In the research, two different political scenarios were presented to voters. The first scenario evaluated the CHP entering the election with its current structure, while the second scenario asked how preferences would shape up if Özgür Özel were to leave the CHP and form a new party.

According to the research results, an increase in the AK Party's vote share compared to the previous month was observed in both scenarios.

THE TABLE IF CHP ENTERS THE ELECTION WITH ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE

In the results before the distribution of undecided voters and protest votes, the AK Party took first place with 24.84 percent. While the CHP's vote share was measured at 22.20 percent, the rate of those saying I am undecided/have no opinion was 13.53 percent. Protest votes were measured at 6.88 percent, DEM Party at 6.55 percent, IYI Party at 5.78 percent, Zafer Party at 4.87 percent, MHP at 4.67 percent, New Welfare Party (Yeniden Refah Partisi) at 3.10 percent, Anahtar Party at 2.97 percent, Workers' Party of Turkey (TİP) at 2.08 percent, and other parties at 2.55 percent.

After the distribution of undecided voters and protest votes, the AK Party placed first with 31.20 percent. While the CHP took second place with 27.89 percent, the DEM Party reached 8.23 percent, IYI Party 7.26 percent, Zafer Party 6.12 percent, MHP 5.87 percent, New Welfare Party 3.89 percent, Anahtar Party 3.73 percent, Workers' Party of Turkey 2.61 percent, and other parties 3.20 percent.

SCENARIO OF ÖZGÜR ÖZEL FORMING A NEW PARTY

In the research, voters were also asked which political entity they would vote for if Özgür Özel were to leave the CHP and form a new party.

Before the distribution of undecided and protest votes, the new party took first place with 28.12 percent. While the AK Party's vote share was measured at 24.53 percent, the rate of those saying I am undecided/have no opinion was 12.06 percent. Protest votes were recorded at 7.41 percent, DEM Party at 5.68 percent, Zafer Party at 4.01 percent, MHP at 3.83 percent, IYI Party at 3.72 percent, CHP at 3.48 percent, New Welfare Party at 2.52 percent, Anahtar Party at 2.12 percent, Workers' Party of Turkey at 0.67 percent, and other parties at 1.85 percent.

After the distribution of undecided voters and protest votes, the new party's vote share rose to 34.92 percent. While the AK Party took second place with 30.46 percent, the DEM Party was measured at 7.05 percent, Zafer Party at 4.89 percent, MHP at 4.76 percent, IYI Party at 4.62 percent, CHP at 4.32 percent, New Welfare Party at 3.13 percent, Anahtar Party at 2.63 percent, Workers' Party of Turkey at 0.83 percent, and other parties at 2.30 percent.

EVALUATION OF THE POLL RESULTS BY TAMER BOLAT

Evaluating the research results, Gündemar Research Chairman Prof. Dr. Tamer Bolat made statements regarding voter behavior.

Bolat stated, "The message is clear: Voters are no longer looking only at the party, but at leadership and the claim to power. While the AK Party is rising to the top again, the 4.01-point loss in the CHP compared to last month, and the 8.21-point loss compared to April, is a serious warning. The new party reaching 34.92 percent shows that the center of the opposition could change in an instant."

According to the data in the research, while the AK Party's vote share increased in both scenarios compared to the previous month, the new party took first place in the assumption that Özgür Özel forms a new party. The CHP's vote share was measured at 4.32 percent in this scenario.

News Source: 12punto