AREA poll: CHP and AKP neck and neck, MHP is melting! Here are the parties' vote shares...

Nefes columnist Aytunç Erkin shared the results of the election poll conducted by AREA Research Company between December 18–23, 2025, with 2,000 participants in his column.

In the poll, the parties' vote shares before the distribution of undecided voters were ranked as follows:

CHP: 25 percent

AKP: 25 percent

DEM Party: 7.2 percent

İYİ Party: 6.6 percent

MHP: 5.2 percent

Victory Party (Zafer Partisi): 3.7 percent

Key Party (Anahtar Parti): 3.4 percent

YRP: 1.7 percent

Other: 2.6 percent

Undecided/None: 19.6 percent

After the distribution of undecided voters, the levels reached by the parties were as follows:

CHP: 31.1 percent

AKP: 31.1 percent

DEM Party: 9 percent

İYİ Party: 8.2 percent

MHP: 6.5 percent

Victory Party (Zafer Partisi): 4.6 percent

Key Party (Anahtar Parti): 4.2 percent

YRP: 2.1 percent

Other: 3.2 percent

Comparing the results by asking the question, "What does the distribution tell us regarding the period from January to December in statistical terms?" Aytunç Erkin made evaluations regarding the poll data. The rest of Erkin's article is as follows:

AK Party was at 29.3 percent in January and 31.1 percent in December.

CHP was at 29.1 in January and 31.1 in December. By the way, let's add a note about CHP: While it was 35 percent in April, 34.1 percent in May, and 34.6 percent in June, it fell to 30.8 percent in July and 30.9 percent in August. Small increases occurred afterward.

When we look at MHP, it was 9.5 in January, 9.1 in February, and 9.3 in May. Afterward, we see a vote graph fluctuating between 7.6 percent and 9 percent until October. However... with the process of visits to İmralı, MHP's votes dropped to 6.1 percent in November and rose to 6.5 percent in December.

The most remarkable party here is Müsavat Dervişoğlu's İYİ Party. İYİ Party received between 6.6 percent and 7.6 percent of the vote from January to November. In December, this figure rose to 8.2 percent. It is assessed that the "Republican/Nationalist" line followed by Dervişoğlu, along with the influence of the "İmralı" and "Terror-Free Turkey" process, had an effect.

Similarly, the DEM Party's vote share fluctuated between 8.1 percent and 10.9 percent in the period from January to November. It has settled at 9 percent in December.

It is a striking result that the Key Party (Anahtar Parti), which was observed to receive 2.4 percent in January, reached 4.2 percent in December.

The Victory Party (Zafer Partisi), which received 7.6 percent in January, began to decline in April. The Victory Party, which saw 4.1 percent in July, has entered a trend of increasing its votes with 4.6 percent in December.