Bad news for CHP: Unexpected result in the poll on Özgür Özel's desk

The results of a new poll prepared for the CHP Headquarters have been reflected in the public eye. Nefes newspaper columnist Aytunç Erkin shared the prominent findings of the research in his article titled 'What is in the latest poll in Özgür Özel's hands?'. Erkin stated, "Because it is 'special,' I will not share the polling firm or the details of the results with you. What I do know is that Özgür Özel trusts this research company very much. It may be one of the studies that also determined the CHP's roadmap regarding the 'Imralı visit'," noting that the study was conducted with 2,975 people in 55 provinces and 427 districts.

According to the poll results, while public support for the "Terror-Free Turkey" goal showed a decline in September and October, it entered an upward trend again in November, rising from 55 percent in October to 58 percent.

A significant portion of the participants do not look favorably upon Devlet Bahçeli's proposal to send a parliamentary delegation to Imralı or his assessments regarding the release of Selahattin Demirtaş. While the rate of those who say, "I find Bahçeli's call to send a delegation to Imralı positive," remained at 43 percent, the rate of those who found it negative was measured at 57 percent.

THE GAP IS NOTEWORTHY

According to what Aytunç Erkin shared, the responses to the question "If there were an election this Sunday, how many votes would the first four parties receive?" were as follows.

CHP: 39.4 percent

AKP: 33 percent

DEM Party: 7 percent

MHP: 6.1 percent

"The following finding in the poll presented to the CHP is important: 'From October to November, the CHP's vote decreased by 2 points. The AK Party's vote increased by 2 points,'" Erkin assessed, continuing as follows:

"The CHP is retaining 86.8 percent of its 2023 votes. Almost half of the 2023 TİP and İYİ Party voters are switching to the CHP."

"There is a 7 percent transition from the AK Party and a 16.3 percent transition from the MHP to the CHP."

"The AK Party can retain 73.5 percent of its votes, and the MHP can retain 60.9 percent within the People's Alliance."

"While 56.9 percent of those who do not go to the polls remain undecided, the highest transition is to the CHP with 21.1 percent."

"While the CHP is the leading party among new voters (33.6 percent), the rate of undecided voters is also noteworthy: 23.3 percent."

FINDINGS REGARDING THE 2 PERCENT VOTE LOSS

Continuing his article, Aytunç Erkin said, "One must look at the 'findings' and 'recommendations' in the research. Even though the CHP is the leading party, the two-point drop in November and the reasons for it need to be examined," and reported the following:

First, the findings...

Hopelessness is rising:

- The mobilization seen in the first months has decreased.

- Voters are returning to a wait-and-see mode, saying 'it didn't happen again'.

The CHP appears to be on the defensive:

- The government is imposing its agenda through the judiciary.

- The CHP is trapped in a defensive position.

- The narrative of victimization and personal injustices may not be very attractive in the eyes of the voter.

The perception that the CHP can win has been partially broken:

- The belief that "the CHP will come in first" fell from 51 percent to 49 percent in one month.

- Those who say "Erdoğan will win" rose from 49 percent to 53 percent.

- Strategic withdrawal and attrition are increasing.

The CHP is behind on the perception of manageability regarding serious issues:

- The CHP is behind the AK Party in foreign policy, which requires a team and vision, and in investment-execution-focused transportation and infrastructure issues.

- Although the CHP reaches 70 percent of the population through its municipalities, it cannot get ahead of the AK Party in terms of social policies and aid.

So what is recommended?

A new strategy that highlights manageability and breaks the image of remaining on the defensive:

- The CHP must be more convincing with its corporate identity, vision, staff, and program, and must set the agenda.

- It should not be enough to focus only on justice and the economy.

- The CHP's perception of manageability on serious issues should be strengthened with program, team, and execution proposals.

Competition with the AK Party in social policies:

- The ground focused on promises that touch and make a difference for the micro-voter groups of 2019 and 2024 in social policy must be re-established.

- Municipal actions must be made inclusive, strong, and highlighted.

A rapid return to the language of "We can win and we will win":

Goal: To recover the perception of winning and to attract attrition-prone and potential groups.