Behind the scenes: Erdoğan does not trust Bahçeli: Is a semi-presidential formula coming?

President and AKP Chairman Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's call for a new constitution, made alongside his declaration that "I will not run again," has stirred political circles. Journalist Murat Yetkin explained the possibilities behind this call in his column today.

Yetkin stated that Erdoğan's move is not only intended to initiate a new constitutional debate but is also a sign of distrust toward the current alliance dynamics, noting, "The President is revealing that he does not fully trust the AKP-MHP-DEM formula. He sees that the system designed by Bahçeli, which is based on the 50+1 percent threshold, is not sustainable."

IS A SEMI-PRESIDENTIAL FORMULA ON THE AGENDA?

Pointing out that Erdoğan has recalled winning power in past elections with around 34 percent of the vote, Yetkin summarized the potential goals behind the search for a new system as follows:

"In a structure without a 50 percent threshold, the AKP's chances of winning elections alone could increase. This could be part of Erdoğan's plan to act without the support of the MHP or the DEM. Such a transformation would increase the influence of the high judiciary and the Parliament, perhaps opening the door to a transition to a semi-presidential model."

Eyes are also on the CHP regarding the new constitutional debates. According to Yetkin, it is unclear how much Erdoğan's proposal will align with the CHP's fundamental demands. The real question, however, is how open Erdoğan truly is to a change in the system. Murat Yetkin concluded his article on the subject as follows.

"It is not clear what or how much Erdoğan is willing to risk with this move. Is he ready for the 'strengthened parliamentary system' that will be the CHP's primary condition—a structure where the Parliament is more effective and governments come to power through a vote of confidence? Will the country emerge from this semi-authoritarian system, which is currently managed through presidential decrees? This is where the real trust issue begins."