Earthquake swarm turns into an earthquake hurricane: Are Bodrum and Didim under tsunami threat?

Earthquakes in the Aegean show no signs of stopping. Although the frequency of the earthquakes is decreasing, many tremors above magnitude 4 are still occurring. One of the most frequently asked questions is whether coasts like Bodrum and Didim would be affected in the event of a possible tsunami. Experts keep the possibility of a tsunami on the table if an earthquake reaches a magnitude of 6.5 or higher.

THE AEGEAN HAS BEEN SHAKING SINCE JANUARY 28

Academics from METU evaluated the potential effects of the earthquakes and increasing seismic activity recorded near Santorini Island since January 28 for an AA reporter.

Prof. Dr. Yalçıner, who is also a retired member of the METU Earthquake Engineering Research Center, stated that many earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 2 have occurred over the last week in the region northeast of Santorini Island, where volcanoes are also active, in the middle of the Aegean Sea.

A 7.4 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE CREATED A TSUNAMI IN 1956

Stating that many earthquakes have occurred throughout history in the triangle formed by the islands of Santorini, Amorgos, and Astypalaia, which are under Greek control, Yalçıner noted that in terms of magnitude, two severe tremors of 7.4 were last recorded in 1956, and that a tsunami occurred in the region as a result of these tremors, causing damage to the islands.

BODRUM WAS AFFECTED BY THE TSUNAMI

Explaining that the north and south of the Bodrum Peninsula, Datça, the Gulf of Güllük, and Didim were also affected by the tsunami at that time, Yalçıner said, "There is no need to be anxious about the current situation. Scientists from both Greece and Turkey are closely monitoring the issue regarding both the earthquakes and the tsunami, and all events are being observed seismically with many devices. For example, volcanic activity has not started significantly on Santorini Island at the moment."

COULD A TSUNAMI OCCUR IN THE AEGEAN?

Stating that a tsunami could occur if the earthquake's magnitude is greater than 6.5 and vertical movement occurs on the seabed due to the tremor, Yalçıner said, "But the magnitude of this tsunami would be on the scale of what we experienced in the Aegean Sea, Bodrum, and Sığacık, or what we experienced in 1956. Waves rising by tens of meters, like those in the oceans, Japan, and Indonesia, do not occur in the Mediterranean and the Aegean."

Yalçıner added that the tremors in the Aegean Sea have no connection to triggering a possible earthquake in the Marmara region.

EARTHQUAKE STORM IN THE AEGEAN

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Atilla Arda Özacar, a member of the METU Earthquake Engineering Research Center and a faculty member of the Department of Geological Engineering, also stated that an "earthquake storm" has been occurring in the region north of Santorini, especially over the last week.

Stating that the tremors are taking place on the Santorini-Anafi Fault, Özacar reported that there are many active faults and volcanism in the region.

Explaining that the Santorini-Anafi Fault is young and that the occurrence of earthquakes in the form of a "storm" is relatively triggered by active volcanism, Özacar said, "This region is an active volcanic region; there is a risk of eruption, but it is not a phenomenon we can state right now. Here, especially in the 1956 earthquake, two large earthquakes triggered each other in succession, and since both were very large earthquakes, they caused a tsunami on our Aegean coasts as well. Therefore, we have taken this activity under careful observation and examination."

Emphasizing that any mechanism that affects the water table, caused by the sliding of mass during a volcanic eruption, can create a tsunami due to earthquakes, Özacar stated that this is possible in the region where the earthquakes are occurring, and that activity could also be seen in Santorini or the Kolumbo volcanoes to its north.

Stating that the risk of a tsunami would increase if the earthquakes reach a magnitude of 7, Özacar noted the following:

"The 1956 earthquake was an earthquake greater than 7 and it caused a tsunami. Therefore, this is a very intense region in terms of tsunamis and the activity of active faults; it must be followed carefully. We have not recorded an earthquake reaching 6 in these tremors. They generally stand out as medium-scale earthquakes. One should not fall into the anxiety that an Istanbul earthquake will be triggered because of this activity. However, Istanbul is already a locked system that has been waiting to move for a long time."