How will the CHP determine its presidential candidate? Here is what is being discussed behind the scenes regarding İmamoğlu and Yavaş...

The Republican People's Party (CHP) is preparing to announce a new political roadmap it has developed against the legal processes targeting Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and other CHP-affiliated municipalities.

According to a report by Ayşe Sayın from BBC Turkish, the method and schedule for determining the presidential candidate are among the key discussion topics in this roadmap, which CHP Chairman Özgür Özel had postponed due to the fire tragedy in Bolu Kartalkaya.

SCHEDULE POSTPONED

Özgür Özel was actually expected to announce this plan last week. However, the program was pushed to a later date due to the fire. During the Central Executive Board (MYK) meeting, the view that the candidate determination process should not overshadow urgent issues on the country's agenda came to the fore. While it is stated that Özel might provide some clues about the process at the upcoming parliamentary group meeting, a clear schedule is not expected to be announced.

'DIGITAL DEMOCRATIC PARTICIPATION' METHOD

According to the CHP bylaws, the parliamentary group determines the presidential candidate. However, the idea of determining the candidate through a primary election based on member participation has gained weight within the party. In this context, it is planned for members to vote online using the "Digital Democratic Participation" method. The candidate determined by the members will be submitted to the parliamentary group for approval as required by the bylaws.

DISCUSSIONS ON POWER-SHARING

Although the formula of IMM Mayor İmamoğlu being the presidential candidate and Ankara Metropolitan Municipality (ABB) Mayor Mansur Yavaş being the vice-presidential candidate is being discussed in political corridors, it is stated that this proposal is not viewed favorably within the CHP. According to statements from the party, there is a plan to announce only the presidential candidate, and concerns are being voiced that "an image of 'power-sharing' like in the Six-Party Table process could create anxiety among voters."

CHP sources state that CHP Chairman Özel will not enter the candidate poll.

It is stated that Özel has repeatedly announced he will not be a candidate, and for this reason, he is not included in the polls commissioned by the party.

Therefore, it is stated that Özel will not be on the primary list for the presidency.

WHAT KIND OF DIALOGUE WILL BE ESTABLISHED WITH THE OPPOSITION?

The CHP aims to initiate a new dialogue among opposition parties, taking into account the arrest of Victory Party (Zafer Partisi) Chairman Ümit Özdağ, the appointment of trustees, and the investigations into İmamoğlu. However, the CHP leadership states that it does not view a similar formula favorably, noting that the Six-Party Table was unsuccessful.

It is emphasized that following Özdağ's arrest, CHP leader Özel met with İYİ Party Chairman Müsavat Dervişoğlu at the Çağlayan Courthouse, and new steps will be taken in the coming period to develop dialogue and cooperation with the opposition.

SCHEDULE DEBATE ON CANDIDACY ANNOUNCEMENT

The debate in the CHP on "announcing the presidential candidate early" began due to the possibility of a political ban being imposed on IMM Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu because of the "insult case" against him.

During this process, the party management was also distant from this option on the grounds that since there was a long time until the election, the candidacy debate would create division within the party and the determined candidate would be worn down by the government.

However, following the arrest of the Esenyurt and Beşiktaş mayors and the successive investigations opened against Ekrem İmamoğlu, "determining and announcing the candidate" emerged as a strong option in internal meetings held at the CHP.

Although some party executives were hesitant to announce the candidate now, the prevailing view was in favor of announcing Ekrem İmamoğlu's candidacy now against the possibility of a political ban and arrest.

'İMAMOĞLU ALSO WANTS THE CANDIDATE TO BE ANNOUNCED'

In CHP corridors, it is said that while İmamoğlu was initially against an early announcement of the candidate, he now wants to move up the candidacy announcement due to recent developments.

Some party executives close to İmamoğlu also stated that they plan to announce the candidate by asking the party organizations "on a schedule that is not too late."

The following assessments were made within the party regarding the advantages of announcing İmamoğlu's candidacy early:

Erdoğan has announced his intention to run. Announcing İmamoğlu's candidacy makes them politically equal.

If İmamoğlu is declared the presidential candidate and then becomes politically banned or arrested by a court decision, Erdoğan will go down in history as a president who unlawfully eliminated his political rival. In such a case, the voter would side with the victim, and whoever the CHP nominates would be elected.

A stronger dialogue has begun among opposition parties following the arrest of Ümit Özdağ. This dialogue will be taken further in the coming days. Determining the candidate early could be advantageous to ensure the opposition stands together. The opposition could unite around İmamoğlu, who is a strong figure against Erdoğan.

CAN MANSUR YAVAŞ BE PERSUADED?

It is known that Ankara Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Mansur Yavaş has presidential aspirations.

Some CHP strategists argue that the candidate will be determined by asking the party organizations and that Yavaş would also enter the organization poll if he wished, stating, "If the organization prefers him, the other candidates will accept this result. But if İmamoğlu emerges from the organizations, Mansur Yavaş will not oppose this either."

Those who defend this view recall that despite being ideologically close to the İYİ Party in the 2019 local elections, Yavaş chose the CHP.

'CHP IS STILL THE LEADING PARTY, AKP WILL NOT AGREE TO AN EARLY ELECTION'

A group within the CHP is of the opinion that announcing the candidate early is disadvantageous.

Those who voice this view in party boards cite "the lack of an early election on the horizon" as the most important reason.

Public opinion polls were discussed at the last CHP MYK meeting.

Pointing out that the CHP is 4 points ahead of the AKP in the polls, some MYK members stated that the AKP would not go to an early election with this picture, commenting, "The government has unlimited resources. It would be very difficult for the candidate and the party to go through the 2-3 years until the election without being damaged or worn down."

Another disadvantage of announcing the candidate early was cited as the possibility of Mansur Yavaş becoming an independent candidate or the candidate of another party if İmamoğlu is determined as the candidate.

Some party strategists suggested announcing İmamoğlu's candidacy with a formula that would persuade Yavaş.