Striking result among CHP base: The Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu detail in the 'absolute nullity' survey

The June research prepared by Işık University's Emotics Lab has revealed the effects of the "absolute nullity" debates within the CHP on voter behavior and political preferences.

According to the research reported by Gözde Yel from T24, while "anger" emerged as the most common emotion among opposition voters, it was assessed that this emotion carries the potential for political mobilization. The findings indicate that a significant portion of the CHP base is ready to support steps that could be taken under the leadership of Özgür Özel, while also pointing to a widening distance between Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the party base.

In the research, participants were asked how they evaluate the possibility of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu returning to the position of CHP Chairman via a court decision and Özgür Özel being removed from office.

The prevailing view among opposition voters is that what is happening is "the government's intervention through the judiciary."

The percentages of those who share this view are as follows:

CHP voters: 69%

DEM Party voters: 57%

İYİ Party voters: 56%

A different picture emerged among AKP voters. While 18% of participants evaluated the process directly as judicial intervention, 39% argued that the judiciary acted impartially. 43% of the segment did not make any evaluation.

While 38% of Yeniden Refah Party voters shared the view of intervention, 19% made an assessment of an impartial judiciary.

LIMITED SUPPORT FOR KILIÇDAROĞLU'S CLAIMS

The research also examined to what extent the "FETÖ" and "corruption" allegations voiced by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu against certain CHP figures resonated with voters.

The results showed that these allegations were not found convincing, especially among the opposition base. 80% of CHP voters, 75% of İYİ Party voters, and 71% of DEM Party voters stated that they did not believe the allegations.

While the rate of those who found the allegations credible among AKP voters remained at 37%, this rate was measured at 34% among MHP voters. The research included an assessment that the political impact of these discourses remained limited.

One of the prominent topics of the research was the level of emotions that political leaders evoke in voters.

In the evaluation conducted among CHP voters, Özgür Özel's hope score was measured at 7.9 out of 10.

In the same category, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu received 1.6 points, and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan received 1.3 points.

In the general average, Özgür Özel's hope score was determined as 4.5, and Erdoğan's hope score as 4.3.

A striking result emerged in anger scores. While the level of anger of CHP voters towards Kılıçdaroğlu was measured at 7.5, the anger score towards Erdoğan was 7.6. In the research, this situation was evaluated as the emotional bond between the CHP voter and Kılıçdaroğlu having weakened significantly.

In the responses given to the question "Which emotion does the 'absolute nullity' process make you feel the most?", the emotion of anger came to the fore.

38% of CHP voters, 28% of DEM Party voters, and 27% of İYİ Party voters associated the process most with the emotion of anger.

Among AKP and MHP voters, the answer "I don't feel any emotion" stood out. 25% of AKP voters and 24% of MHP voters stated that they remained indifferent to the process.

In the general results of the research, anger ranked first with 20%, while indifference was in second place with 18%.

CONCERNS ABOUT DEMOCRACY AND TENSION CAME TO THE FORE

The research also revealed what concerns the process created in voters.

77% of CHP voters, 70% of İYİ Party voters, and 72% of DEM Party voters expressed concern that what is happening could harm the functioning of democracy.

The concern about social tension was measured at high levels in all voter groups. Emphasis on social tension was made at a rate of 45% among CHP voters, 47% among İYİ Party voters, 45% among AKP voters, and 48% among MHP voters. Concerns regarding economic consequences ranked third in all groups.

WHAT KIND OF ATTITUDE IS EXPECTED FROM THE CHP MANAGEMENT?

In the research, participants were also asked what path Özgür Özel and the CHP management should follow in the face of the process.

In the general sample, while 36% of participants supported a "calm and determined" approach, 31% stated that weight should be given to the legal struggle.

Support for a calm and determined attitude among CHP voters was measured at the 45% level. The rate of those who think that focus should be on the legal process was 38%.

Besides this, while 33% of CHP voters stated that they support a tougher political struggle, 31% expressed that they look positively at street mobilization. A conciliatory approach was the option that received the lowest support with 12%.

STRIKING RATES IN THE NEW PARTY SCENARIO

In the final part of the research, different scenarios were tested based on the possibility of Özgür Özel establishing a new political party.

While 33% of participants stated that they could vote for such a party, when the 16% segment who expressed that they were undecided were also included in the potential support pool, the total rate reached 49%.

While 69% of CHP voters stated that they could vote for the new formation, 52% stated that they could work voluntarily, and 42% stated that they could provide financial support. Signals of support at a certain level also came from DEM Party and İYİ Party voters.

In the first scenario created in the research, the vote rate of a party to be established only under the leadership of Özgür Özel was calculated as 33%. In the second scenario, where Mansur Yavaş also comes to the fore, this rate rose to 37%.

In both scenarios, while the AKP's vote rate was measured in the 31-34% range, it was seen that the CHP's vote rate under the leadership of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu declined to the 5-6% levels.

In the research note, it was stated that the Mansur Yavaş factor could be evaluated within the statistical margin of error, while it was expressed that the prevailing tendency of the CHP voter is towards a new political formation.