Turkey's active fault line! Alarming statement from Naci Görür: An earthquake over 7 will occur

While there are 485 active fault lines in Turkey, breaking news about earthquakes hits the agenda almost every day. Geologists, who continue their warnings regarding Turkey's active fault lines, are particularly drawing attention to the Marmara Region.

The 4.4 magnitude earthquake that occurred in Çanakkale in recent days has escalated concerns regarding an Istanbul earthquake.

Geologist Prof. Dr. Naci Görür made special warnings for the Marmara Region during a live broadcast he attended and announced the probability of an earthquake. While issuing a warning for a 7.5 magnitude earthquake, Görür said, "The probability of an average 7.5 magnitude earthquake is very high. With the revised figure, this is 47 percent."

The earthquake expert stated that the Marmara Fault will definitely rupture, saying, "In other words, the northern branch of the NAF (North Anatolian Fault) must rupture within the Marmara. Because it has ruptured in the East and West, the middle is a seismic gap, which means it will rupture."

NACİ GÖRÜR ANNOUNCED WHERE HE EXPECTS THE EARTHQUAKE

Prof. Dr. Naci Görür's warnings are as follows:

Let's first focus on the recent earthquake. These are small earthquakes. For example, we do not see a need to conduct a study on earthquakes below 4. Now, although it is a small earthquake, the location of the recent earthquake in Eceabat is noteworthy. We expect an earthquake on the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault. In particular, we call the section within the Marmara the Marmara Fault. There is an Islands Fault in the east of the Sea of Marmara. There is also a Kumburgaz fault; it extends to the open waters of Yeşilköy-Silivri. It also has a branch from the open waters of Silivri to Tekirdağ. Now, we expect the earthquake on the Islands and Kumburgaz Faults.

7.5 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE WARNING

The probability of an average 7.5 magnitude earthquake is very high. With the revised figure, this is 47 percent. That is, since '99, the probability of an earthquake occurring at any moment is 47 percent. It was 64 percent before, but it was revised over time. Therefore, this is a high probability; you even toss a coin with 50 percent probability. Now, the place where this earthquake will occur is certain. There was an earthquake in the west in 1912; there was the '99 Kocaeli earthquake.

The area between the two is the Sea of Marmara, which is empty. The last earthquake was in 1766; that fault produces an earthquake every 250 years. There is a plus-minus 10 to 15-year margin. In other words, the probability of an earthquake occurring these days is high.

If an earthquake occurs on one side of a strike-slip fault and an earthquake occurs on the other side, a seismic gap is formed, which must definitely rupture.

In other words, the northern branch of the NAF must rupture within the Marmara. Because it has ruptured in the East and West, the middle is a seismic gap, which means it will rupture.