Leadership scenarios in CHP shift the polls: Bad news for Kılıçdaroğlu from the survey on Özgür Özel's desk!

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and his administration, who were brought to the CHP Chairmanship with a decision of absolute nullity, have closed the doors to calls for an extraordinary convention and have effectively started a purge within the party. While names close to the elected CHP Chairman Özgür Özel are being removed from their posts and referred to disciplinary committees, there is curiosity about whether Özel will form a new party.

A survey revealing public trends regarding the convention and leadership debates recently on the agenda in the CHP, as well as the judiciary's "absolute nullity" decision, has been presented to CHP Chairman Özgür Özel. The different scenarios included in the research revealed possible changes in the CHP's vote share and the impact of leadership preferences on voter behavior.

The prominent results in Metropoll's June research are as follows:

In response to the question, "If a parliamentary election were held this Sunday, which political party would you vote for?", the rate of undecided voters, those protesting, and those who did not answer was measured at 34.6 percent. According to raw data, the AKP ranked first with 20.3 percent, while the CHP was in second place with 18 percent.

With the distribution of undecided voters, the parties' vote shares were calculated as follows:

With the distribution of undecided voters, the parties' vote shares were calculated as follows:

CHP: 27.5 percent

DEM Party: 12.7 percent

MHP: 7.5 percent

İYİ Party: 6.5 percent

The research also included scenarios regarding the picture that could emerge if the CHP entered the election with different leaders.

It was observed that if Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu were to become chairman again, the CHP's raw vote would drop to 7.1 percent, and to 10.9 percent when undecided voters are distributed. In this scenario, it was stated that the parties to which voters leaving the CHP would most likely turn are the İYİ Party with 14.3 percent and the DEM Party with 14.2 percent.

CHP UNDER ÖZGÜR ÖZEL'S LEADERSHIP

According to the research, while the raw vote share of the CHP under Özgür Özel's chairmanship was measured at 26.8 percent, this rate rises to 36.5 percent with the distribution of undecided voters. It was stated that with this result, the CHP reached the position of the leading party.

CHP UNDER KILIÇDAROĞLU'S LEADERSHIP

The report stated that in the scenario where Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is the chairman, the CHP's raw vote is 7.1 percent, and the distributed vote share is 10.9 percent. It was noted that with this result, the party fell to fourth place.

IF ÖZGÜR ÖZEL FORMS A SEPARATE PARTY

In another scenario in the research, the situation where the CHP enters the election under Kılıçdaroğlu's leadership and Özgür Özel forms a new party was evaluated. Accordingly, it was seen that the party Özel would form would rank first with 24.9 percent in raw votes and 33.8 percent after the distribution of undecided voters. In the same scenario, it was reported that the distributed vote of the CHP under Kılıçdaroğlu's leadership remained at the 5 percent level.

VOTER PERSPECTIVE ON KILIÇDAROĞLU'S RETURN

In the research, the question "Do you find it appropriate for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu to be reappointed as CHP Chairman?" was also asked. 61.2 percent of general participants answered "No, I do not find it appropriate," while 27.5 percent answered "Yes, I find it appropriate."

Among participants who stated that they voted for the CHP in the last election, the rate of those opposing Kılıçdaroğlu becoming chairman again was measured at 82.7 percent.

VIEWS ON THE "ABSOLUTE NULLITY" DECISION

In the research, the impact of the "absolute nullity" decision regarding the convention and leadership debates in the CHP on voters was also examined.

41.7 percent of participants evaluated the process as a "political process aimed at weakening the opposition." The rate of those who agreed with this view reached 60.8 percent among CHP voters and 64.1 percent among İYİ Party voters.

DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC CONCERN

According to the research results, 43.8 percent of participants think that the decision in question will weaken Turkey's democracy.

Following the decision, 23.1 percent of participants expressed personal concern regarding democracy, and 26.6 percent regarding the economy. The total rate of voters reporting concern was recorded at 49.7 percent.

VOTER CONCERN LEVELS MEASURED

In the question regarding the effects of the nullity decision, 23.1 percent of participants stated that they were concerned about the country's democracy, and 26.6 percent about the country's economy.

CONVENTION CALL STANDS OUT

The research also asked what path Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu should follow. 45.7 percent of participants expressed the view that Kılıçdaroğlu should go to a convention without wasting time.

EVALUATION OF KILIÇDAROĞLU

In the responses to the question "What kind of figure is Kılıçdaroğlu?", 62.7 percent of participants shared the view that Kılıçdaroğlu is "not a sincere and honest political figure."