Statement on 'Istanbul earthquake' from Naci Görür

Prof. Dr. Naci Görür stated, "Earthquakes occurred on both sides of the Sea of Marmara in 1912 and 1999. There has been no earthquake in the middle of these two since 1766. That seismic gap in between will certainly be filled. There is no other way. If there are earthquakes in the east and the west, the area between them must inevitably break. The period for this region has expired. This is no joke."

Emphasizing that Gebze should be handled specifically regarding earthquakes, Görür said, "In the event of an earthquake causing Istanbul to collapse, Gebze must not collapse so that Istanbul can get back on its feet faster; that is, the industry must not collapse."

"IT CAN PRODUCE A 7.2 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE"

According to AA, Görür discussed the structure of the North Anatolian Fault in the Sea of Marmara, stating, "There is the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault in the Sea of Marmara. It is a 3-branched fault, and this fault is a locked fault. A 'locked fault' means it is accumulating energy. This branch will break one day. If it breaks, it can reach a maximum magnitude of 7. If the entire 45-kilometer length of the branch is locked and breaks, an earthquake of 6 or higher will occur. The second branch is from off the coast of Yeşilköy to the central Marmara and off the coast of Silivri. We call this branch the 'Kumburgaz branch'. It is approximately 70 kilometers long. If this breaks, it will produce an earthquake of at least 7.2 magnitude," he assessed.

"THE SEISMIC GAP FORMED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SEA OF MARMARA WILL CERTAINLY BREAK"

Pointing out that the fault branch starting off the coast of Silivri and going to Tekirdağ broke in the 1912 Şarköy earthquake, Görür said, "We think it is accumulating energy. We do not think it will break and create a separate earthquake. When it breaks, this branch could also produce earthquakes reaching 7.2."

Noting that the expected earthquake in the Marmara region could occur with many different scenarios, Görür said, "We think the earthquake will start on the Kumburgaz branch. Later, it might break other regions, or other branches of the fault might break, just like the earthquake in the south on February 6. In the southern region, 2 faults broke by triggering each other. This could also break in succession. In that case, we think the magnitude of the earthquake could go up to 7.5," he expressed.

Emphasizing that the seismic gap formed in the middle of the Sea of Marmara will certainly break and cause an earthquake, Görür said, "Earthquakes occurred on both sides of the Sea of Marmara in 1912 and 1999. There has been no earthquake in the middle of these two since 1766. That seismic gap in between will certainly be filled. There is no other way. If there are earthquakes in the east and the west, the area between them must inevitably break. The period for this region has expired. This is no joke."

News Source: AA