Statement on the Istanbul earthquake from Naci Görür

Geoscientist Prof. Dr. Naci Görür spoke at a panel titled "The Marmara Earthquake and the Impact of Earthquakes on Industry," held in the Gebze district of Kocaeli.

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DESTRUCTION

Prof. Dr. Görür stated at the panel, organized by the Gebze Chamber of Commerce and the Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects (TMMOB) at the Osman Hamdi Bey Cultural Center, that industrial facilities producing in the region would be affected by a potential Marmara earthquake.

Görür noted that the Marmara Region accounts for nearly 60 percent of Turkey's gross national product, and touched upon the difficulties the Turkish economy would face in the event of a disaster in this region.

"THIS SEGMENT WILL BREAK ONE DAY"

Discussing the structure of the North Anatolian Fault in the Sea of Marmara, Görür said, "There is the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault in the Sea of Marmara. It is a 3-branched fault, and this fault is a locked fault. A 'locked fault' means it is accumulating energy. This segment will break one day. If it breaks, it can reach a magnitude of at most 7. If the entire 45-kilometer length of the segment is locked and breaks, an earthquake of 6 or higher will occur. The second branch is from off the coast of Yeşilköy to the central Marmara and off the coast of Silivri. We call this branch the 'Kumburgaz branch.' It is approximately 70 kilometers long. If this breaks, it will produce an earthquake with a minimum magnitude of 7.2," he assessed.

"THERE IS NO JOKING ABOUT THIS"

Pointing out that the fault branch starting off the coast of Silivri and extending to Tekirdağ broke during the 1912 Şarköy earthquake, Görür said, "Therefore, we think it is accumulating energy. We do not think it will break and create a separate earthquake. When it breaks, this branch could also produce earthquakes reaching 7.2."-

Touching upon the fact that a potential earthquake in the Marmara region could occur with many different scenarios, Görür stated, "We think the earthquake will start on the Kumburgaz branch. Later, it could break other regions, or other branches of the fault could break, just like the earthquake in the south on February 6. In the southern region, 2 faults broke by triggering each other. This could also break in succession. In that case, we think the magnitude of the earthquake could go up to 7.5."-

Emphasizing that the seismic gap formed in the middle of the Sea of Marmara will definitely break and cause an earthquake, Görür said, "Earthquakes occurred on both sides of the Sea of Marmara in 1912 and 1999. There has been no earthquake in the middle of the two since 1766. That seismic gap in between will definitely be filled. There is no other way. If there are earthquakes in the east and west, the area between them must inevitably break. The period for this region has expired. There is no joking about this."-

News Source: 12punto