2025 warning from İş Bankası CEO

İş Bankası CEO Hakan Aran shared his assessments regarding the Turkish economy. Speaking to Vahap Munyar from Ekonomim, Aran said that 2025 will not be an easy year. Announcing his inflation forecast, Aran said, "I believe we will close this year with inflation in the 38-42 percent range."

'EXPENSIVENESS IN CREDIT WILL CONTINUE'

Aran said, "While a 50 percent interest loan is expensive at 45 percent inflation, a 30 percent interest loan will also be expensive at 25 percent inflation. In other words, the expensiveness in credit will continue. Those who cannot hold their breath until the end of 2025 will likely face great difficulties. 2025 will be a year where those who access credit that is allowed to grow and use it wisely, and those who focus on increasing efficiency in their workplaces, will grow stronger," he said.

Aran, who believes that 2025 will be a year where non-performing loans will increase, including the commercial side, said, "Until the CBRT increases foreign exchange reserves to a level where one can say 'the vault is full' and inflation drops to 10 percent, neither the exporter nor the producer will see a comfortable day."

“POLICY RATE MAY BE CUT TO 45 THIS YEAR”

Noting that the cooling in the economy began in July, Aran said, "Credit card usage has even fallen below January levels. I believe we will close this year with inflation in the 38-42 percent range. If we assume that inflation will close the year at 42 percent, I estimate that the policy rate will be reduced from 50 to 45 in one of the October, November, or December meetings, either at once or in stages," he said.

Stating that he expects inflation to end in 2025 above the 14-21 percent range, at a point between 20-21 percent, Aran said, "In this case, I think there will be an opportunity to lower the policy rate, which is 45, down to 25."

'THE DOLLAR REMAINING BELOW 39 LIRA IS A GREATER RISK'

When asked, "Is there no possibility of the dollar exceeding 42 lira?", İş Bankası CEO Hakan Aran replied, "In my opinion, a greater risk than the possibility of the dollar exchange rate exceeding 42 lira is the possibility of it remaining below 39 lira. I think we will close the year in the 39-42 lira range."

News Source: 12punto