Central Bank releases data: Year-end inflation, interest rate, and dollar forecasts

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) has announced the results of its February market participants survey.

Accordingly, the 2024 year-end dollar/TL exchange rate expectation, which was 40.00 in the previous survey, became 40.02 in the February survey.

The 12-month ahead dollar exchange rate expectation, which was 40.64 in the January survey, was recorded at 41.15 TL in the February survey.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATION REMAINS STABLE

The participants' expectation for the overnight interest rate in the BIST Repo and Reverse-Repo Market at the end of the current month remained at 45 percent, as it was in the previous survey period.

The expectation for the TCMB one-week repo auction interest rate at the end of the current month also remained at 45 percent, consistent with the previous survey period.

INFLATION EXPECTATION INCREASED

The participants' current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation, which was 42.04 percent in the January survey, rose to 42.96 percent in the February survey. 

The 12-month ahead CPI expectation was 39.09 percent in the previous survey period and became 37.78 percent in this survey period. The 24-month ahead CPI expectation was recorded at 23.69 percent and 23.05 percent, respectively, for the same survey periods.

GROWTH EXPECTATION DECREASED

The participants' GDP growth expectation for 2024, which was 3.4 percent in the previous survey period, became 3.3 percent in the February survey.

The growth expectation for 2025 declined from 3.9 percent to 3.8 percent.

News Source: 12punto