3 different salary increase scenarios for retirees and civil servants! Here are the figures on the table...

Millions of retirees and civil servants have their eyes set on the salary increases to be implemented in January 2026.

The inflation forecasts published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) have provided the first clues regarding the potential levels of salary increases. Accordingly, if inflation in the second half of the year materializes between 7.14% and 10.56%, this rate will be directly reflected in salaries.

INFLATION DETERMINES THE COURSE OF SALARIES

Salary increases for retirees and civil servants are applied in January and July.

SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees receive a raise only equal to the six-month inflation rate.

Civil servants and retired civil servants receive an inflation adjustment in addition to the collective bargaining agreement raise.

For this reason, the CPI rate to be announced for the second half of the year will be the deciding factor for salaries.

TCMB'S YEAR-END FORECAST

According to the forecasts announced by Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan, year-end inflation will range between 25% and 29%.

If inflation remains at 25%, the second six-month inflation will be 7.14%.

If the rate rises to 29%, the second-half inflation will reach 10.56%.

POTENTIAL RAISE FOR RETIREE SALARIES

The forecasts indicate that the raise rate that SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive in January will vary between 7.14% and 10.56%. This rate will depend on the second-half inflation that will be finalized.

INFLATION ADJUSTMENT FOR CIVIL SERVANTS AND RETIRED CIVIL SERVANTS

In addition to the collective bargaining agreement increase, an inflation adjustment will also be applied to civil servant salaries.

If inflation is 25%, a 2.04% adjustment will be reflected for civil servants.

If the rate rises to 29%, the adjustment will be 5.30%.

Thus, the January raise will consist of the sum of the collective bargaining agreement increase and the inflation adjustment.

COLLECTIVE BARGAINING NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE

The collective bargaining process that will determine the salary increases for civil servants for the years 2026 and 2027 is ongoing. While Memur-Sen has submitted its demands, the government has presented its initial offer. If an agreement cannot be reached, the matter will be referred to the Arbitration Board.

WHEN WILL THE RAISE RATES BE FINALIZED?

The inflation data for the second half of 2025 is awaited for the salary increases to be finalized. The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) will announce this rate to the public on January 3, 2026, and thus the salary raise for retirees and civil servants will be clarified.