Inside information emerges: What are the expectations for the minimum wage?

The issues of the minimum wage and the lowest pension are among the topics that have recently drawn the most public interest. While opposition parties have openly expressed their expectations on this matter, AKP officials and members of parliament share their views more in closed-door meetings.

The Minimum Wage Determination Commission will hold its first meeting tomorrow. While a specific figure is not expected to be announced at the first meeting, it is estimated that clues regarding the rate of the raise will emerge.

TWO DIFFERENT VIEWS PREVAIL WITHIN THE AKP

According to a report by Ekonomim, two different approaches regarding the minimum wage are coming to the fore within the AKP. While party officials tend to make statements in line with the economic management's stance, members of parliament express their expectations through assessments based on their observations in the field.

Views from the party leadership are summarized as, "The minimum wage increase must be balanced. The high raise rates implemented in the past caused imbalances, and it has become difficult to restore this balance. Statements that raise expectations create difficulties when determining the rate."

In this context, while it is stated that the 2025 minimum wage could be 22,000 TL or more, it has been claimed that with the intervention of AKP President Erdoğan, this figure could rise to 24,000 TL or above.

DEMANDS FROM MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT

AKP members of parliament have high expectations regarding the lowest pension, in addition to the minimum wage.

Members of parliament assess the situation as follows: "Pensions caused us to lose votes in the local elections. Citizens are reacting in the field. They are struggling to make a living, and they are right to do so. We expect the minimum wage to be increased in parallel with the inflation rate at the end of 2024. We anticipate this rate will be 44 percent. If a 44 percent raise is implemented, the minimum wage would be 24,432 TL. It would be a surprise if this figure goes any higher."

WHAT IS THE GENERAL EXPECTATION WITHIN THE PARTY?

The general expectation within the AKP is shaping up to be that the minimum wage will not fall below 23,000 TL, and that it would be a surprise if it exceeds 25,000 TL. During this process, the view that the lowest pension should also be increased to the 16,000 TL level is frequently voiced by members of parliament.

PROPOSED FIGURES ARE BELOW THE COST OF LIVING

The Türk-İş poverty line report for November 2024 has added a new dimension to the minimum wage debates. The poverty line, which covers clothing, housing (rent, electricity, water, fuel), transportation, education, health, and other essential needs in addition to food expenditures, was calculated at 66,976 TL.

According to the report, the monthly cost of living for a single worker reached 26,712 TL. Kitchen inflation was calculated at 0.64 percent monthly, 46.60 percent over twelve months, and 67.20 percent as an annual average. While these data are considered an important basis for determining the minimum wage, it was noted that the minimum wage amounts proposed by AKP members of parliament are below the monthly cost of living.