Inside information on pension hikes: He delivered the bad news!

Millions of retirees across Turkey are awaiting the salary increases scheduled for January 2026. The last adjustment for retirees receiving pensions under the SSK, Bağ-Kur, and Emekli Sandığı systems was a 16.67 percent increase in July 2025.

The new increase rate will be determined by law based on the six-month average of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the July-December period. However, the issue that retirees are most curious about is whether the government will decide on a "welfare share" or a "flat-rate increase" beyond the statutory rate.

OCTOBER INFLATION CHANGED SALARY CALCULATIONS

The October inflation data announced by TÜİK has pushed salary increase expectations higher. In October 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.55 percent monthly and 32.87 percent annually.

With the impact of increases in food and housing items, the possibility of inflation falling below 30 percent has been eliminated. Following these developments, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey also revised its year-end inflation forecast from the 25-29 percent range to the 31-33 percent band.

These rates have solidified an increase of at least around 12 percent in retiree salaries while bringing the expectation of a welfare share back to the agenda.

INFLATION DIFFERENTIAL REACHED 10.25 PERCENT IN FOUR MONTHS

The four-month cumulative inflation differential covering July, August, September, and October was calculated at 10.25 percent. This rate will be automatically reflected in all retiree salaries even if no additional increase is made.

Some sample salary increases were calculated as follows.

Lowest retiree salary (16,881 TL) → 18,611 TL

19,670 TL salary → 21,686 TL

23,400 TL salary → 25,799 TL

According to SGK expert İsa Karakaş, when November and December data are added, this increase rate could rise to the 13 to 14 percent range.

“NO WELFARE SHARE” MESSAGE FROM ANKARA INSIDERS

In his column in Türkiye Gazetesi, SGK expert İsa Karakaş highlighted information he obtained from Ankara insiders. Karakaş stated, "As far as we follow from Ankara, there is no mention of a flat-rate increase. As for the welfare share, I can say that we have not reached any indication that an improvement in this direction will be made at this time."

These assessments indicated that the government would only apply the statutory inflation adjustment in January.

ALL EYES TURNED TO JANUARY 5, 2026

The final rate of increase for retiree salaries will be clarified with the announcement of December inflation on January 5, 2026.