Retirees' Eyes on July 3: 4 raise scenarios for base salary on the table!

Millions of SSK, Bağ-Kur, and Emekli Sandığı retirees across Turkey have turned their eyes to the inflation data to be announced on July 3. Inflation, which stood at 15.09 percent in the first 5 months, is projected to settle between 16.24 and 17.39 percent with the inclusion of June. These rates will directly affect not only the salary increases for civil servants and retirees but also the lowest pension amount.

HOW IS THE BASE PENSION CALCULATED?

Currently, the lowest pension is maintained at the 14,469 TL level with state support. Retirees whose actual pension falls below this amount receive a supplementary payment to reach this figure. However, the raises to be implemented are applied to the base salaries determined according to the retirees' own premium-based earnings. For this reason, once the raise rates are announced, it is expected that the state will once again implement a supplementary formula, as in previous years.

According to a report in the pro-government Sabah newspaper, the CPI rate for the first half of 2024 was 24.73 percent, and this rate was rounded up to 25 percent and reflected in the lowest salaries. Similarly, in January 2025, the base pension was set at 14,469 TL with a 15.75 percent inflation increase. A similar practice is expected to be implemented in July 2025.

4 DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR THE BASE PENSION

The June inflation rate has been shaped according to four different estimates.

1) Inflation Rate: 1 Percent

SSK & Bağ-Kur Raise: 16.24 percent

Civil Servant & Retiree Raise: 15.14 percent

Base Pension: 16,919 TL

2) Inflation Rate: 1.5 Percent

SSK & Bağ-Kur Raise: 16.82 percent

Civil Servant & Retiree Raise: 15.72 percent

Base Pension: 16,903 TL

3) Inflation Rate: 1.77 Percent (Central Bank Estimate)

SSK & Bağ-Kur Raise: 17.13 percent

Civil Servant & Retiree Raise: 16.03 percent

Base Pension: 16,948 TL

4) Inflation Rate: 2 Percent

SSK & Bağ-Kur Raise: 17.39 percent

Civil Servant & Retiree Raise: 16.28 percent

Base Pension: 16,986 TL

Following the announcement of the raise rates, the regulation regarding the base pension is expected to be placed within a legal framework. The government plans to make this increase official through a legislative proposal to be submitted to Parliament and to have it ready for the July salaries.