Gold outlook for 2026: Everyone will be caught off guard

The interest rate policy expected from the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) for 2026 has influenced the forecasts of global financial institutions regarding gold prices. Bank of America (BofA) has lowered its average gold price forecast per ounce for 2026 by 14 percent, citing expectations that the Fed will shift toward a tighter monetary policy. According to the institution's current forecast, the price of gold per ounce will average $4,360 in 2026.

The expectation that the Fed's pace of interest rate hikes could accelerate is also creating unease in the markets. While gold is generally seen as a safe haven in negative interest rate environments and times of heightened geopolitical concern, the expected rise in bond yields is reducing the appeal of gold.

On the other hand, Bank of America has not changed its long-term perspective. The bank maintains its view that after the Fed's tightening cycle ends, gold prices could rise again, potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce.

Other international financial institutions, such as JPMorgan, also indicated in an analysis published last week that potential interest rate hikes by the Fed could put pressure on gold. Despite this, JPMorgan reported that it maintains its expectation for a long-term rise in gold prices for 2027 and beyond.

Market experts agree that the Fed's monetary policy decisions will continue to be a determining factor for gold prices, alongside investors' search for safe havens.

News Source: 12punto