How does the Afghanistan-Pakistan tension affect the markets?

Following Pakistan's declaration of war on Afghanistan, unrest in global markets has increased. In a process where the search for safe havens has come to the fore, gold and silver investors are closely monitoring developments. Appearing as a guest on Sözcü TV, economist Selçuk Geçer evaluated the scenarios that could occur in the markets if the conflicts drag on.

Stating that commodity prices cannot be suppressed if the war deepens, Geçer made the following remarks:

"We need to look at what kind of economy awaits the world if the war intensifies. The war between Afghanistan and Pakistan was evident long ago.

When we look at the economic side, inflationary pressure will emerge. These are all countries connected to oil. If this process continues, the map of the world will be reshaped. Oil prices will also rise under the influence of these conflicts. Oil is expected to go above 100 dollars. This situation could lead the Fed and the European Central Bank to pause interest rate cuts or even increase them. What happens if interest rate cuts are paused?"

GEOPOLITICAL RISK BRINGS COMMODITIES TO THE FORE

"Under normal conditions, in environments where there are no geopolitical risks, the fact that major central banks are raising interest rates is not a good situation for gold. Gold softens, but I repeat, if conditions are at a normal level. But if there are geopolitical risks like the current one, if oil prices are rising due to war and there is inflation, and if central banks are raising interest rates, you cannot hold back gold and silver prices.

The world has entered a complex process. The sum of all these is that gold and silver will rise, while serious selling pressure will accelerate on the stock and crypto side. It is also seen that interest rates are rising on the bond side. From now on, the 2026-27 period will be determined by wars and geopolitical risks."

FOREIGN EXCHANGE PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE DOMESTIC MARKET

"I do not expect a rise in the Dollar and Euro. There is pressure here. There is a foreign crowd that is emptying the inside of this country and making it pay crazy interest. They are getting high interest returns from Turkey. There are those who are securing 40-50 percent interest returns from Turkey. They are providing interest returns from there.

The reason why exporters, producers, and citizens are all screaming is that the foreign exchange rate is not where it should be. The dollar is already around 85-90 liras. The IHKIB President recently said that all costs have increased by 4100 percent, but the foreign exchange increase has been 200 percent. He said we have become twice as expensive as Europe. Do not rejoice because the foreign exchange rate is falling."

News Source: 12punto