Interest rate forecasts from famous German bank: The decline will begin from that date

Deutsche Bank Global Macro Vice President Ozan Tarman answered questions from Berfu Güven on CNBC-e. 

Stating that if US President Donald Trump initiates potential tariffs, he could impose additional customs duties of 60 percent on China and 10 percent on Europe, Tarman said this move would cause the dollar to strengthen. He also noted that in this scenario, the Fed's pricing approach could change and that Fed Chair Jerome Powell might want to implement an interest rate cut in December.

'A 50 BASIS POINT RATE CUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING'

In his assessment regarding the European Central Bank (ECB), Ozan Tarman stated that despite the ECB's announcement that "we will not do 50, we will continue with 25 basis points," a 50 basis point interest rate cut would not surprise him. Noting that the opposition in Germany is in a good position, Tarman shared his expectation that the second opposition party could also show success.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO OIL PRICES?

Sharing his expectations regarding oil prices, Tarman stated that the possibility of a decline to the 60-65 dollar level in oil is stronger than the possibility of an increase to the 85-90 dollar level. Expressing his year-end forecast for the Euro/dollar exchange rate as 1.05, Tarman said that Turkey is in an advantageous position in light of geopolitical developments and that foreign investors find orthodox policies positive.

Stating that Turkey's young population and strategic importance are also appreciated by US President Trump, Tarman emphasized that the private sector and the public sector should cooperate to make the best use of this potential of Turkey. He expressed that orthodox policies are important for the correct utilization of this potential.

WHEN WILL THE INTEREST RATE CUT HAPPEN?

Making statements regarding interest rates in the US economy, Tarman explained that after the interest rate cuts, the Fed could implement a rate cut in January, and that Deutsche Bank has an expectation in this direction. He said, "Minimum wage increases and the Fed's moves in December are important; however, the markets maintain their confidence that the hawkish stance will continue."

News Source: 12punto