Outlook for the index is strengthening

Looking abroad, we can say that it is a week where the data agenda is relatively calm. While PMI indices in the US and the Eurozone stand out, the minutes of the Fed's last meeting, which will be published tomorrow, will be monitored. However, as will be recalled, after the inflation data that came in better than expected last week, the predictions that the Fed has reached the end of its interest rate hikes have become almost certain, and pricing regarding the Fed starting interest rate cuts next year has also strengthened. For this reason, the impact of the Fed minutes on the markets may remain more limited this time. In addition, US stock markets will be closed on Thursday due to Thanksgiving, and there will be half-day trading on Friday. Due to the holiday effect, activity in foreign markets may decrease in the second half of the week, and participation in domestic markets may also remain more limited. 

TRY: In the market participants survey published by the CBRT, the year-end 2023 inflation expectation decreased by 0.8 points to 67.2%, and the expectation for the next 12 months decreased by 1.3 points to 43.94%. There is no change in the slope of the upward trend of the dollar exchange rate since September, and the tendency of the TRY to lose value by nearly 3% on a monthly basis continues. Depending on the extent to which Thursday's MPC interest rate decision meets market expectations, whether there will be a change in this trend will also take shape.

Borsa Istanbul: The index, which started the week with selling pressure, followed an upward trend throughout the week with purchases that strengthened especially after the US inflation data, and managed to complete the week above the 7800 resistance with an increase of around 1%. While 7800 has become support in the index, as long as it remains above this level, it can be expected to maintain its upward trend towards the critical 7900-8000 resistances. 7700 is valid as a secondary support level. Let us note that the short-term technical outlook in the index tends to strengthen above 7800. We can say that Turkey's 5-year credit risk premium falling below 350 basis points for the first time in 3 years is positive for the markets in the medium term.

BIST-30 NEAREST TERM VIOP CONTRACT

In BIST-30 contracts, which closed the day at 8682.75 points, 8631, 8511, 8443, and 8383 can be monitored as support. 8700, 8760, and 8828 constitute the resistance points.

USD/TRY NEAREST TERM VIOP CONTRACT

In USD/TRY futures contracts, which closed the day at 28.9435, 28.7675, 28.5355, 28.333, and 28.101 can be monitored as support. 29.173, 29.4045, 29.6075, and 29.839 constitute the resistance points.

News Source: 12punto