Potential increase rates and expectations for retiree and civil servant salaries in July

The salary increases to be implemented in July in Turkey are of critical importance for millions of SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees, as well as civil servants and civil servant retirees. Social Security Expert Nergis Şimşek detailed the estimated increase rates for the July 2026 period and how these rates are calculated.

The criterion that determines the salaries of SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees in January and July is the six-month inflation rate announced by TUIK. The cumulative inflation announced for the five-month period up to May 2026 was recorded at 16.60 percent. It is projected that inflation could reach 1.5 percent in June. If this occurs, the total inflation rate for the first half of the year will be 18.35 percent. This situation will play a decisive role in the increase rate to be applied in July.

According to Şimşek's estimates, there is a high probability that an 18.35 percent increase will be applied to the salaries of SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees in July. However, if there is no change in the base salary application in the current system, hundreds of thousands of retirees with low base pensions will not be affected by the raise and will remain at the lowest pension level. Conversely, if the government decides to increase the base salary, the lowest pension could rise to approximately 23,670 TL.

According to March 2026 data, the number of SSK retirees and beneficiaries in the country is over 11 million 603 thousand, while the number of Bağ-Kur retirees and beneficiaries is approximately 2 million 911 thousand. The lowest pension has continued to be applied at 20,000 TL as of January 2026. Whether there will be an update to this figure remains uncertain.

The method for salary increases for civil servants and civil servant retirees is different. Due to the collective bargaining agreement provision, the six-month inflation rate is not taken as the direct basis. A 7 percent increase rate is projected for the second half of 2026. However, if the six-month inflation rate is 18.35 percent, 6.62 percent of this will be reflected in salaries as an inflation difference. Therefore, together with the raise from the collective bargaining agreement, the total salary increase rate for civil servants and civil servant retirees will be 14.08 percent.

Furthermore, it is noted that some additional payments provided to active civil servants are not reflected in the pensions of retired civil servants. The additional payment of approximately 21,989 TL provided to active civil servants at the beginning of 2026 further increases the income gap between those who have retired and those who are still working.

According to the general expectation, while an increase in pensions in the 18 to 19 percent band in July stands out, the possibility of an additional increase in the minimum wage or the lowest pension currently appears low. Retirees and civil servants are closely following whether the rate they deserve will be reflected in the raise process and whether there will be any additional improvements.

News Source: 12punto