SGK expert calculates: The final picture for retiree and civil servant raises has emerged

Discussions continue regarding the raise rates expected by public employees, primarily millions of SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees, in July. Social Security Expert İsa Karakaş shared his predictions on the picture that emerged after the May data was announced and how the figures might change once June inflation is calculated.

According to current calculations for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees, a 16.60 percent raise rate has already been finalized following the inflation announced in May. This rate remains lower for civil servants and civil servant retirees due to the terms in the collective bargaining agreement. Regarding the raise difference, Karakaş stated, "With the announced inflation data, a 16.60 percent update for all SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees has been finalized. The update to be made for civil servants and civil servant retirees will be below this figure. This is because there is a collective bargaining agreement. When we calculate it with the difference exceeding 11 percent and the 7 percent addition, as of today, a 12.40 percent update has been finalized for all civil servant retirees and civil servants. Therefore, as of today, compared to SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees, civil servants and civil servant retirees are facing an update that is 4.20 percent lower according to the realized inflation."

The inflation to be announced in June is expected to reshape the raise rates. Karakaş, in light of the Central Bank's year-end forecasts and market expectations, stated that the raise to be given to SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will approach 18 percent, adding, "However, if we act more cautiously, that is, even if there is an inflation of around 1.20, we expect an update between 17.5 and 18.5 percent for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees. In this context, we can speak of an average update of 18 percent. We can say that civil servants and civil servant retirees will again face an update that is more than 4 percent lower due to the collective bargaining agreement. For civil servants and civil servant retirees, we can therefore speak of an update between 13.5 and 14 percent, or 14 percent."

The possibility of an increase in the lowest pension is also on the agenda. Karakaş predicted that if an equal raise is applied to all pensions in line with current state policy, a pension of 20,000 TL could rise to approximately 23,600 TL with an 18 percent increase.

For civil servant retirees, two different scenarios are on the table. The lowest civil servant pension, which is currently 27,888 TL, will rise to 31,792 TL with a 14 percent raise. It is stated that if the unions' demands are met and an 18 percent raise is implemented, this figure could reach 32,908 TL.

While it is stated that all raise rates will become clear with the announcement of June inflation, current calculations point to a probability of an 18 percent increase for SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees and approximately a 14 percent increase for civil servants and civil servant retirees.

News Source: 12punto