Striking AI assessment from economist Pissarides: Do not expect sustained high productivity

Christopher Pissarides, a professor at the London School of Economics who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2010, stated that it is unlikely that artificial intelligence will restart periods of rapid productivity growth that have not been seen in Western economies for a long time. According to Pissarides, approximately 40 percent of jobs in the UK and the US—particularly in sectors such as nursing and hospitality—will not be significantly affected by artificial intelligence.

Technology companies and various governments have pinned high hopes on artificial intelligence in recent years to overcome slowing economic growth and gain new dynamism. Stagnant economic indicators in Europe and persistent political tensions have further increased interest in these technologies. However, Pissarides pointed out that artificial intelligence has not yet created a visible productivity boost.

Unlike Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and OpenAI officials, Pissarides stated that there are no signals of rapid growth yet in light of current developments. The professor emphasizes that many job sectors in the UK are almost completely unaffected by artificial intelligence, and therefore, expecting a productivity explosion across society is not realistic.

In his speech at the Royal Economic Society conference held in Newcastle recently, Pissarides said, “It is not realistic at all to talk about high productivity growth. I think we have to accept the fact that the era of rapid productivity growth is behind us, no matter what we do.”

The professor also expressed that even in sectors most affected by artificial intelligence, such as the finance sector, productivity leaps have not emerged to the extent expected. Pissarides said, “Given what we know and what we are witnessing right now, I do not think that productivity growth can reach the levels of the 1980s and 1990s.”

DIFFERENT INTERPRETATIONS REGARDING THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Different approaches regarding the impact of artificial intelligence are also coming to the fore in the economic world. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey believes that artificial intelligence could be a “game changer” that could affect economic growth in the long term.

Acknowledging that it will take time for growth rates to rise, Bailey shared the view that artificial intelligence could take on a savior role in economic terms. However, he also emphasized that a little more patience is needed to see this effect in the short term.

How the integration of artificial intelligence into the business world will shape productivity will continue to be among the issues closely monitored by economic circles in the coming years.

News Source: 12punto