Striking dollar forecast from major bank

Deutsche Bank, one of Germany's leading financial institutions, has made significant forecasts regarding the Turkish economy. The bank stated that while carry trade is currently prominent, risks are increasing. Predicting that the dollar will rise to 43 TL by the end of 2025, the bank estimated this figure at 52 TL for 2026 and 62 TL for 2027.

Deutsche Bank stated that inflation experienced a rapid decline in the first half of 2025 due to the base effect, but this decline slowed in the second half of the year. It was noted that year-end inflation would remain above the CBRT's 24 percent target due to increases in food prices and resistance in services inflation. The inflation forecast for the end of 2026 was announced as 23.8 percent.

In the bank's report, interest rate cuts of around 100 basis points are expected at each meeting in the coming period. While the policy rate is estimated to be 30.5 percent at the end of 2025, this rate is expected to fall to 25 percent by the end of 2027. It is assessed that if stronger disinflation occurs, the possibility of a 150-basis-point cut may also increase.

Evaluating Turkey's economic growth, Deutsche Bank announced that the economy grew by 3.7 percent in the first nine months of 2025 and that this growth forecast has been raised to 3.8 percent. A growth rate of 4.2 percent is projected for 2026. It was emphasized that the defense, services, and construction sectors are performing well, but the outlook has worsened in low-value-added sectors such as textiles.

This news does not constitute investment advice.

News Source: 12punto