US Energy Information Administration revises oil price forecasts upward

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its oil price forecasts for this year and next, pointing to an expected decline in global oil inventories.

According to the EIA's "September 2023 Short-Term Energy Outlook Report," the expected decline in global oil inventories in the last quarter of the year, following the decision by Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), to extend its voluntary crude oil production cuts until the end of this year, is expected to support prices upward.

In this context, the price of Brent crude oil is expected to rise to $84.46 per barrel by the end of the year. This figure was estimated at $82.62 in the previous report.

The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is also projected to be $79.65 per barrel. This figure was projected at $77.79 last month.

For next year, the average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be $88.22 per barrel, while the average price of WTI crude oil is expected to be $83.22 per barrel.

US DAILY CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION IS RISING

The average daily crude oil production in the US is expected to be approximately 12 million 780 thousand barrels this year. Last year, this figure was recorded at approximately 11 million 910 thousand barrels. Production is calculated to reach 13 million 160 thousand barrels in 2024.

Global oil supply is estimated to be 101 million 180 thousand barrels per day this year and 102 million 880 thousand barrels per day next year. This increase is assessed to be driven primarily by non-OPEC countries, namely the US, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana.

In OPEC countries, crude oil production is expected to decrease by approximately 800 thousand barrels per day this year to 27.91 million barrels, and to be 28.3 million barrels per day next year.

On the other hand, global oil demand is projected to be 100.9 million barrels per day this year and 102.3 million barrels per day next year.

Demand in OECD countries is calculated to increase by 150 thousand barrels compared to last year, reaching 45.8 million barrels this year, and to be 45.7 million barrels per day next year. In non-OECD countries, demand is estimated to increase by 1.66 million barrels compared to last year, reaching 55.17 million barrels per day this year, and 56.56 million barrels next year.

News Source: AA