US revises oil price forecast downward

According to the EIA's "December 2023 Short-Term Energy Outlook Report," the average price per barrel of Brent crude oil fell to 83 dollars in November, a decrease of 8 dollars compared to the previous month. This decline was largely driven by ongoing concerns regarding growth in global oil demand.

According to the report, the average price per barrel of Brent crude oil is expected to be 82.40 dollars this year. This figure was estimated at 83.99 dollars in the previous report.

The average price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is also projected to be 77.63 dollars. That figure was projected at 79.41 dollars last month.

On the other hand, according to the report, although the decline in oil prices continued in December, upward movements in oil prices are expected in the coming months due to the projected decrease in global oil stocks in the first quarter of 2024.

Pointing out that production cuts by the OPEC+ group, consisting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producer countries, will be effective in the decline in stocks, the report estimates that the average price per barrel of Brent oil will rise to 83 dollars next year.

It is projected that the production cuts by the OPEC+ group will compensate for the slowdown in demand, prevent increases in stocks, and keep the average price per barrel of Brent oil above 80 dollars next year.

The EIA, while predicting that oil prices will be above their current levels next year, has revised its forecast downward by approximately 11 dollars compared to its previous estimate.

Accordingly, the average price per barrel of Brent crude oil is expected to be 82.57 dollars next year. This figure was estimated at 93.24 dollars in the previous report.

The average price per barrel of WTI crude oil is also projected to be 78.07 dollars. That figure was projected at 89.24 dollars last month.

INCREASE IN US CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION

The average daily crude oil production in the US is expected to be approximately 12 million 930 thousand barrels this year. Last year, this figure was recorded at approximately 11 million 910 thousand barrels. In 2024, production is calculated to rise to 13 million 110 thousand barrels.

Global oil supply is estimated to be 101 million 620 thousand barrels per day this year and 102 million 190 thousand barrels next year.

On the other hand, global oil consumption is projected to be 101 million barrels per day this year and 102 million 340 thousand barrels next year.

News Source: 12punto