Will the flat-rate pay raise expected by millions arrive?

As millions of civil servants and civil servant retirees await the finalization of their July salary increases, all eyes have turned to the June inflation data, and the assessments penned by SGK Chief Specialist İsa Karakaş have drawn attention. Stating that the current collective bargaining system leaves civil servants and civil servant retirees at a disadvantage against inflation, Karakaş shared possible scenarios regarding the raise rates.

JUNE INFLATION WILL DETERMINE THE RAISE RATE

İsa Karakaş stated that the salary increases to be applied in July will be finalized once the June inflation data is announced.

Noting that current economic indicators suggest civil servants and civil servant retirees may face a salary increase that could remain below official inflation, Karakaş conveyed that calculations regarding raise rates are being shaped in line with Central Bank expectations.

Evaluating the forecasts in the Central Bank's Survey of Market Participants, Karakaş stated that if June inflation comes in at 1.52 percent, the cumulative inflation for the first six months of the year could reach 18.37 percent.

Furthermore, stating that he has also performed calculations based on different scenarios, Karakaş expressed that he expects six-month inflation to fall within the 17.5 to 18.5 percent range.

14 PERCENT RAISE CALCULATION FOR CIVIL SERVANTS AND RETIREES

According to Karakaş's assessments, if this inflation range is realized, the total of the inflation difference and the collective bargaining raise to be reflected in the salaries of civil servants and civil servant retirees will be around 14 percent.

Thus, the increase to be applied to civil servants and civil servant retirees in July is expected to be shaped within the framework of the current collective bargaining provisions.

İsa Karakaş also shared what is being discussed in Ankara political circles regarding the frequently debated topic of a flat-rate raise.

Stating that there is no strong expectation for a new flat-rate raise regulation for civil servant retirees, Karakaş said that the messages coming from the corridors are not in that direction.

"THE FLAT-RATE INCREASE HAS EXCEEDED 22 THOUSAND TL TODAY"

Karakaş made the following assessments in his column:

"The flat-rate increase, which was 8 thousand 77 TL when it was first announced, has exceeded 22 thousand TL as of today with cumulative calculations. As of today, the lowest civil servant retiree salary is 27,877 TL. If the promise of a flat-rate raise were to be fulfilled alongside the 14 percent July update, the lowest civil servant retiree salary would have reached 57,000 TL with this addition."

"WHATEVER IS IN THE COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AGREEMENT, THAT IS ALL"

While conveying the information he obtained from Ankara political circles, Karakaş used the following expressions regarding the expectation of an additional increase:

"However, the message from the corridors is clear: 'Whatever is in the collective bargaining agreement, that is all.' Neither a flat-rate raise for civil servant retirees is on the agenda, nor is an extra single penny. Only the update formula foreseen in the collective bargaining agreement is on the table."