Expected raise for minimum wage: Economists analyzed the data, the picture for the January hike has become clear

Wage earners are wondering how much of a raise will be applied to the minimum wage before the end of the year. At the beginning of the year, a 49 percent increase was implemented, bringing the net minimum wage to 17 thousand 2 TL. No interim raise was made in July.

The Central Bank's inflation report stated that year-end inflation would reach 38 percent. The inflation forecast for the end of 2025 is at the 14 percent level.

So, will the minimum wage increase in January be based on realized inflation or targeted inflation? Will this be the last high minimum wage increase?

Explaining the expectations regarding the issue to milliyet.com.tr, Certified Public Accountant and Economist Muhammet Bayram stated the following:

“There was no new raise for the minimum wage in the middle of this year. The expectation of minimum wage earners is for a significant raise to be implemented by the end of the year. However, within the scope of the fight against inflation, the raise to be applied to the minimum wage will be proportional and limited.”

Most businesses have also opted to implement an interim raise for the minimum wage and other wages. In other words, even if they did not make an adjustment in July, they decided to implement a raise in August or September instead.

Currently, the minimum wage is 17 thousand 2 TL. There is also a serious expectation of an increase regarding this. The Central Bank's inflation forecast is a minimum of 34 percent and a maximum of 42 percent. I expect year-end inflation to be around 40-41 percent.

There will also be an expectation of a significant raise by the end of the year. We can already estimate the raise that will be implemented at the end of the year. The inflation for the first 6 months was 24.73 percent. To this, the July inflation of 3.23 percent was added. As of now, with the inclusion of July, a 29 percent raise has been earned.

Inflation data for August, September, October, November, and December have not yet been released. Year-end targets are at the 40 percent level. If monthly inflation comes in at around 2-2.5 percent, the year-end inflation target of 40 percent can be reached.

The minimum wage increase to be implemented in January 2025 will be based on realized inflation. The inflation difference from the previous year will be provided. We can say that there will be a minimum wage increase of up to 40 percent.

It is too early to answer this right now. There is a cost-of-living crisis; the hunger and poverty thresholds have risen. The hunger threshold has reached the level of 19 thousand TL. Looking at this, it is expected that the minimum wage will be increased above inflation. However, this will be based on the inflation of the previous period.

It is currently too early for any discourse regarding whether there will be an increase in the welfare share. I believe an increase of nearly 50 percent will be implemented along with a welfare share.

Some businesses have implemented interim price hikes. Others are raising prices in the final quarter of the year. A significant increase may be considered in January.

We can say that this will be the last high-rate hike. Inflation is expected to be around 40 percent this year and is projected to fall to the 15 percent level next year. In this context, we can say these are the last of the high price hikes.

There could be a minimum increase of 40 percent; if a welfare share is included, there could be a maximum increase of around 50 percent. The minimum wage will rise to 25 thousand TL. In general, there is almost no minimum wage left in metropolitan areas. Wages at the level of at least 20 thousand are already being paid.