Gold forecast for investors from Bank of America: Figures for 2026 have changed

As balances in global markets shift rapidly, gold prices have remained under pressure due to strong employment data from the US and the rise in the dollar index. As investors search for direction, all eyes are now turned to the Fed's critical meeting in December. In light of these developments, US financial giant Bank of America (BofA) has updated its gold outlook for 2026 and announced its new forecast to the public.

According to experts, the Fed's interest rate path, the course of the dollar index, and geopolitical uncertainties will continue to be decisive for the future of gold prices. Bank of America's new forecast serves as both a warning and an opportunity message for investors.

The US dollar's trajectory, approaching a six-month high, and strengthening expectations that the Fed will not cut interest rates in December pulled gold prices down on the first trading day of the week.

Starting the day with a 0.62 percent decline at 4,043 dollars, gold per ounce is currently trading at 4,078 dollars with a 0.25 percent gain.

TURNED POSITIVE IN GRAM GOLD

The volatility in gold per ounce was also reflected in gram gold domestically. Starting the day with a 0.63 percent decline, gram gold rose to the 5,564 lira level with a 0.26 percent gain, following the rise in gold per ounce.

At the same time, quarter gold is being sold for 9,430 lira, Republic gold for 37,572 lira, and full gold for 37,578 lira.

PRESSURE ON GOLD FROM THE DOLLAR

The US dollar index approaching a six-month high on Friday continued to create additional pressure on gold prices.

The fact that non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 119 thousand in September, exceeding expectations by double, strengthened expectations that the Fed might pause interest rate cuts at its December meeting.

A strong dollar limited demand by making gold more expensive for investors using currencies other than the dollar.

MIXED MESSAGES FROM THE FED

The minutes of the Fed's October meeting pointed to risks such as inflation becoming persistent and the erosion of public confidence, despite the interest rate cut.

The Department of Labor report, which was delayed due to the US government shutdown, revealed that the labor market is more vibrant than expected.

"MADE GOLD EXPENSIVE"

Reliance Securities senior research analyst Jigar Trivedi stated that the dollar index is hovering above 100, near six-month highs, and that this is creating pressure on gold. It was stated that spot gold could retest the 3,995 dollar support, and a slip below this level could carry the price to 3,937 dollars.

According to technical analysis, gold is trying to hold onto the rising trend line. While the reaction from 4,022 dollars appears weaker compared to the previous rise that started from 3,988 dollars, it was stated that if the 4,101 dollar resistance is broken, the trend starting from 3,998 dollars could extend to the 4,170-4,243 range.

As the dollar index hovers near Friday's six-month high, this has made gold more expensive for other currencies. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of an interest rate cut next month fell to 69% on Monday, down from the 74% seen in the previous session.

Trivedi stated that gold could exhibit a sideways-negative outlook over the next 3-5 weeks due to weak geopolitical support factors. It was reported that the US and Ukraine will continue to work on a modified plan to end the war with Russia.

NEW GOLD FORECAST FROM BOFA

Bank of America (BofA) announced that the macroeconomic conditions that caused gold to rise to record levels throughout 2025 will continue strongly in 2026, and that prices could reach new peaks.

In its "Next Year" report, BofA stated that although gold is technically in the "overbought" zone, it is still "under-invested," and that this combination supports the market despite high valuations.

They emphasized that unconventional economic policies are among the main factors driving gold upward. As long as these conditions persist, they predicted that gold could reach 5,000 dollars per ounce in 2026.

The bank estimates that gold will average 4,538 dollars/ounce in 2026.

Although silver demand is projected to decrease by 11% next year, it is stated that prices could remain at an average of 60 dollars/ounce due to the supply deficit. An average price forecast of 1,825 dollars/ounce was made for platinum and 1,525 dollars/ounce for palladium.