How would the potential return of Syrians affect the housing sector? 'Prices within 1 year...'

Although the expectation of Syrian refugees returning to their country has led to anticipation in the rental market that 'rents will fall,' real estate experts emphasized that no one should fall for the expectation that 'rents will drop immediately.'

Pointing out that Syrians live mostly in districts such as Fatih, Beylikdüzü, Esenyurt, and Avcılar, experts stated that they estimate 40,000 to 50,000 apartments could become vacant in Istanbul if returns occur, adding, "The effect of these homes on the rental market will only be seen after 1.5 years.

Rents will not drop in a week. No one should have such an expectation. However, since the number of homes available for rent will increase at that time, the heavy conditions set by landlords will soften slightly, and the rate of increase in rental prices will slow down. But right now, we are not receiving a high demand for return from Syrians. There are also those who say, 'There is no electricity, no water, why should I go?' Because many of them have bought property here and established their businesses," they assessed.

The number of homes for rent will increase

Hakan Akdoğan, Chairman of the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) Real Estate Committee and Honorary President of the All Entrepreneurial Real Estate Consultants Association (TÜGEM): "There are signals in the last 2-3 days that there will be a serious return in regions where Syrians live densely. If departures accelerate in areas where Syrians live densely, it could bring relief to rents, and the number of rental homes will increase. This will allow rental prices to normalize and conditions to become easier. I do not think there will be a change in rents just because Syrians have left.

Especially in places where they live densely, because they do not live everywhere. They live in certain neighborhoods of large cities. So, they had no effect on the sales side; I do not foresee it bringing significant movement. However, it could bring relief to the rental side.

There will be relief in neighborhoods where they live densely, such as Fatih, Esenyurt, Beylikdüzü, and Sultanbeyli, and the supply of rental housing will increase. This will provide an advantage for prospective tenants in finding rental housing quickly. It will allow prices to normalize more and slow down the rate of rent increases. However, we do not know how many vacant apartments will emerge. In general, we see that the supply of rental housing and housing options will increase, the challenging conditions of landlords will ease, and the rate of rent increases will slow down.

"Rents will not fall just because they left"

Sezgin Bilge, Chairman of the Board of Trio Real Estate Management, said, "The departure of Syrians will not affect the housing market much. However, it will ensure that foreign investors look at Turkey more attractively and evaluate it more for investment again. In other words, rents will not fall just because Syrians left. Honestly, I do not think the effect of lowering rents will be very significant.

When you look at it, the regions where Syrians rent or buy and rent out are places like Beylikdüzü and Esenyurt. That is, the more remote points of Istanbul, and rents are not very high there anyway. Because there are many options there in terms of renting. The reason why rents are high is mainly due to the lack of production. That is, it is higher in regions where production is low. Therefore, it will not have a huge effect. However, if the supply increases as foreign investors start coming and renting housing, there could be such an effect. More housing could be rented out then."

"There should not be an expectation that it will fall immediately"

Senay Araç, Board Member of the İSTOÇ Businessmen Association and Real Estate Consultant, said, "There should not be an expectation that 'rents will fall immediately,' or that 'rents will drop and homes will become available.' There are also homes that many Syrians have bought here. There are Syrian refugees who have bought their own property and opened their businesses. So, no one should have the expectation that 'rents will fall after a week.' Those who were well-off were buying their own property, but there were also refugees who were not well-off and were working, and some were living in very bad places.

There were even those who rented basement storage rooms. Fatih, Başakşehir, and Esenyurt are the regions where they live most densely in Istanbul. There is no demand like 'we are emptying our house, we are moving now' in these places. However, it might happen towards summer. Because we are in the winter period. If homes are vacated and returns begin in regions where Syrian refugees are dense, the reflection of this situation on the rental market will only be seen after 1.5 years."

"There is no intense return"

Nizamettin Aşa, President of the Istanbul Real Estate Agents Chamber, spoke as follows:

"This is actually a scenario. A psychology has formed that they will leave, but we do not know how much of it will turn into reality. If there are returns, an estimated 40,000 to 50,000 homes could become vacant in Istanbul; that is, there is a serious potential for homes. The effect of this will only be reflected in the markets after 1 year. Since the number of rental homes will increase, there could be a drop in prices then. In regions where Syrians live densely. All of this will happen if we assume they will return; if they do not return, it will not happen. However, there are also Syrian refugees where 3-5 families live together. There are also those who say, 'There is no electricity, no water, what will we do if we go?' We do not know if they will go and return again or how many people will go. However, the effect on the rental market will not happen before a year. Everyone will not pack up and leave all at once, because there are also those who have settled here and opened businesses. We have put this issue on our agenda, but there is no intense return."

"Excess supply may lower rents"

Ahmet Arslan, Deputy General Manager of Denge Valuation: "The return of Syrians is reshaping the housing market in some regions in Turkey. Especially in large cities like Istanbul, an excess of supply is expected in the rental market with the decrease in the Syrian population. This situation may cause rental apartment prices to fall and rental costs to decrease in real terms. Especially in regions that receive heavy migration like Istanbul's Fatih district, homes vacated by the decrease in the Syrian population will increase the supply of rental housing and allow tenants to find housing at more affordable prices. Increasing supply will help balance rents by allowing demand to be met more easily."