Istanbul shaken by 6.2 magnitude earthquake! Experts divided: Japanese expert shares map of high-risk districts

The 6.2 magnitude earthquake that occurred yesterday at 12:49 PM off the coast of Silivri, Istanbul, lasted for 13 seconds and caused widespread panic, particularly in the Marmara region. AFAD reported that 184 aftershocks have been detected since the earthquake, 7 of which were above magnitude 4. Authorities have warned citizens that aftershocks could continue for days.

CITIZENS SPENT THE NIGHT OUTDOORS

Silivri and its surrounding areas, the epicenter of the earthquake, remained on edge throughout the night due to aftershocks. Istanbul residents, especially in coastal districts, spent the night in open areas. This development has brought the concern of a major Istanbul earthquake back to the forefront.

"THIS IS NOT THE EXPECTED EARTHQUAKE"

Japanese earthquake expert Yoshinori Moriwaki emphasized that the earthquake that occurred was not the anticipated major Istanbul earthquake, stating, “The risk continues in the Marmara and Silivri districts.” Noting that “it is impossible for us to know when the earthquake will happen,” Moriwaki pointed out that aftershocks could last for several days.

WHICH ARE ISTANBUL'S HIGH-RISK DISTRICTS?

In his statement, Moriwaki noted that soil type can increase the impact of an earthquake, stating, “More than 50 percent of buildings in Istanbul and Turkey are illegal. Soil surveys must be conducted for buildings constructed after 2000.” He listed Avcılar, Bakırköy, Ataköy, Pendik, and the coastal line of Kartal among the high-risk areas due to their soft soil.

WHAT SHOULD BE DONE DURING AN EARTHQUAKE?

Emphasizing the importance of creating a "life triangle" during an earthquake, Moriwaki stated that items such as a metal whistle, water, salt, a mask, and chocolate would make it easier to survive if trapped under rubble. “If there is water, a person can survive for 1 month in the rubble,” said Moriwaki, urging citizens to be prepared.

EARTHQUAKE EXPERTS DIVIDED

Many experts offered different interpretations following the earthquake. Prof. Dr. Şükrü Ersoy stated, “The energy of this earthquake is only 1/32nd of the major Marmara earthquake. The possibility of a major earthquake still persists,” while Prof. Dr. Naci Görür commented, “These are not the expected major earthquake; on the contrary, they are increasing the stress.” Görür also stated that instead of urban transformation, the concept of an ‘earthquake-resistant city’ should be adopted.

Görür emphasized that the government, municipalities, and citizens must act together, saying, “Earthquakes should be discussed when they are not happening, not when they are.” Pointing out that the time before the earthquake is more important than the moment of the earthquake, Görür said that inspection mechanisms must function.

Görür warned, "There are many earthquakes occurring in the Sea of Marmara in Istanbul, on the Kumburgaz fault. They are of varying magnitudes. These are not the major earthquake we expect in Marmara. These are increasing the stress accumulated by this fault. In other words, it is forcing it to break. The real earthquake here will be larger and over 7 in magnitude."

In contrast, Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy offered a different perspective. Stating, “Earthquakes in Marmara have ended. Be at ease,” Üşümezsoy had previously expressed a month ago that he expected a 6-6.5 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Kumburgaz.

WHEN WILL THE MAJOR ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE HAPPEN?

Prof. Dr. Ahmet Ercan shared a noteworthy post on his social media account regarding when the major Istanbul earthquake will occur. Ercan stated, "The M6.2 earthquake is a warning or a drill for the M7.0-M7.2 expected on the Thrace branch. The focus of the major earthquake will be exactly at this location at a depth of 7 to 13 km, and its shaking will be 22 times greater. The North Anatolian Fault will break with a right-lateral strike-slip, and the vertical displacement will be around 1.5. My studies indicate that it is still too early for the major earthquake; it is expected to occur between 2045 and 2075. If your house is in a solid location and is durable, and there are no cracks or breaks in the columns and beams, you can use it."