Minimum wage expectations have changed: Here are the figures being discussed...

Millions of employees are wondering how much of a raise will be given to wages.

The year-end inflation figure is of critical importance in determining the minimum wage.

The Minimum Wage Commission is expected to hold its first meeting in December.

INFLATION FORECAST RAISED

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) raised its year-end inflation forecast by 6 points, increasing it from 38 percent to 44 percent.

The 2025 forecast was raised from 14 percent to 21 percent.

The 2026 forecast was also revised from 9 percent to 12 percent.

MESSAGE FROM THE CENTRAL BANK ON MINIMUM WAGE

Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan stated that it is not in question for them to make a normative assessment regarding the determination of the minimum wage.

Karahan said, "We are not the decision-makers. There is a board, the board meets and has certain processes; we are not a party to this board, nor do we provide any formal or informal recommendations," he stated.

TCMB Deputy Governor Cevdet Akçay said, "The pass-through of minimum wage increases is lower during periods when economic activity is relatively weak."

Akçay emphasized that a transition to forward-looking indexation should be made in wage increases. Akçay stated, "This is positive for inflation. Forward-looking indexation must be implemented. I am of the opinion that the economic climate is also suitable for this."

WHICH DATA WILL BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT FOR THE MINIMUM WAGE?

It has been debated for some time whether the minimum wage hike will be based on year-end inflation or target inflation.

Different scenarios regarding raise estimates are being discussed.

FIGURES DISCUSSED FOR MINIMUM WAGE

According to Ntv, a 25 percent raise rate for the minimum wage has begun to be voiced loudly in the markets.

A 30 percent wage increase is also among the expectations.

The prevailing view in the business world is that the minimum wage should be increased to the 22-23 thousand lira level.

Expectations in reports by foreign institutions have also shaped up in the 25-30 percent range.

CENTRAL BANK INFLATION TARGETS

2024 midpoint: 44 percent

2024 upper bound: 46 percent

2024 lower bound: 42 percent

2025 midpoint: 21 percent

2025 upper bound: 26 percent

2025 lower bound: 16 percent

MEDIUM-TERM PROGRAM (OVP) INFLATION TARGETS

2024: 41.5 percent

2025: 17.6 percent

2026: 9.7 percent

HOW MUCH WILL THE MINIMUM WAGE BE? HERE ARE THE RAISE SCENARIOS

The minimum wage was increased by 49.11 percent last January to 17 thousand 2 lira.

If a 25 percent raise is given in January, the new minimum wage will be 21 thousand 252 lira.

If an increase is made at the rate of the Central Bank's 44 percent target, it will reach 24 thousand 483 lira.

If a 21 percent raise, which is the TCMB's 2025 target, is given, it will rise to 20 thousand 572 lira.

If a 26 percent raise, which is the 2025 upper band, is given, it will be 21 thousand 422 lira.

If a 30 percent raise is given to the minimum wage, it will rise to 22 thousand 102 lira.

If a 40 percent raise is given, the new minimum wage will reach the 23 thousand 802 lira level.

If a 41.5 percent raise, the Medium-Term Program (OVP) inflation target, is given, it will exceed 24 thousand lira.

If a 17.5 percent raise, which is the 2025 inflation target in the OVP, is given, it will rise to 19 thousand 977 lira.